NFL Super Bowl Betting: Who’s worth a punt – and who’s not – after Week 10?

Thanksgiving is not far away so it's time to take stock of who deserves extra portions and who's looking a prize turkey

Comments

It’s around this time every year that we decide the New England Patriots are going to win the Super Bowl again.

We always try to downplay the probability of it – we dissect their roster from head to toe, find the weak spot(s) and say that’s where teams will exploit them.

Except, they never seem to manage it.

As week 10 has passed us by, the contenders are starting to separate from the pack and the air of inevitability is only contested by the air of optimism around certain franchises who haven’t hit these dazzling heights in years.

Ladies and gentlemen, here are the teams who are capable of winning the Super Bowl this year and the ones who absolutely aren’t despite the hype.

FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – AUGUST 22: Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots and Julian Edelman #11 talk on the sideline during the preseason game between the Carolina Panthers and the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on August 22, 2019 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

BEt on the PAtriots to win it all again at Paddypower.com

New England Patriots @ 11/4

I’m sorry to report this, but I’ve made this mistake in five of the last six years and it will not be happening again.

Yes, I enjoyed a wry smile telling everyone I knew Philly would beat New England, but I more resemble a broken clock than I do a genius when it comes to Robert Kraft’s baby.

Brady’s decline is slight – and slight enough that it’s more than adequate to land another Vince Lombardi.

The emphasis on the multi-faceted run game is testament to just how much pressure Belichick wants to take off Brady’s shoulders.

And it’s their blueprint to success now.

Verdict: Of course they can!

SEATTLE, WA – SEPTEMBER 22: Quarterback Russell Wilson #3 of the Seattle Seahawks is chased out of the pocket by linebacker Demario Davis #56 of the New Orleans Saints during the second half of a game at CenturyLInk Field on September 22, 2019 in Seattle, Washington. The Saints won 33-27. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)

Seattle Seahawks @ 12/1

Again, like above, if you took their roster and compared it against everyone else’s, they probably wouldn’t be in the top half of the merit table.

That’s the funny thing, you know – the more the NFL moves on, the more you realise it comes down to having a franchise quarterback and shrewd coaching.

This is another case of such – where Pete Carroll meets Russell Wilson and many dreams are hatched. They’re the only team capable of toppling the 49ers in the NFC, as displayed last night.

Verdict: A contender

San Francisco 49ers @ 7/1

The best-coached team in the NFL is the San Francisco 49ers and they can design their way to a Super Bowl, much like Sean McVay almost did last year.

DC Robert Saleh is going to walk into a big job next year, so this is very much their window now to focus in on winning a Super Bowl.

George Kittle is a franchise talent – the best in his position in the entire league, while Kyle Shanahan’s blackboard more than compensates for the average skill position players around them.

But their quarterback just cannot produce in key moments.

Their first big test this season was against Seattle on Monday night in a pressured environment and he choked. Stuff of nightmares.

Verdict: Falling short

KANSAS CITY, MO – OCTOBER 21: Head coach Andy Reid of the Kansas City Chiefs stands on the sidelines that would earn him his 200th career victory as a head coach during the second half of the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Arrowhead Stadium on October 21, 2018 in Kansas City, Kansas. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)

Kansas City Chiefs @ 11/1

They can outscore anyone, but they really lack that big-game mentality. If you think back to their key moments over the last number of years, they’ve not produced when the expectation is on them.

In many ways, they’ve benefitted from a Chargers team in their division who are likely the only side to possess a bigger bottlers tag, but at least their shortcomings can be attributed to injuries.

Beat the Chargers last year to clinch the division? No.

Beat the Seahawks last year to clinch the division? No.

Beat New England to finally break the wait for a Super Bowl appearance? No.

Verdict: Back to the drawing board

Minnesota Vikings @ 18/1

Yep, this one’s going to ruffle some feathers.

But, if you think back to the miracle against New Orleans, then you’ll see that come big moments, this group have something about them.

They may well be beaten by a better team on the day, but they have everything they need to lift the biggest prize of all come February because they know how to control time of possession.

The key to doing so is being able to run the ball and having a mismatch on third down when you’re typically handed man coverage. Kyle Rudolph flashed this week that he’s more than capable of being that safety blanket.

Verdict: Darkhorse potential

Sep 23, 2018; Atlanta, GA, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) dives for a rushing touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

New Orleans Saints @ 6/1

The focal point of this offence is Alvin Kamara and he looks like he won’t be firing again this year based on his lethargic route-running and limited touches.

Yes, Michael Thomas is balling out but a lack of secondary receivers is a concern on third down, especially as that offensive line is adjusting from a mobile quarterback to a bloke who’s strapped up for the entire season.

I’m sure they’ll try something funky with Taysom Hill in a postseason game that could get them to a Championship game, and they don’t have to face New England prior to a potential Super Bowl appearance, but there isn’t firepower in this unit to dabble with much more balanced NFC opponents.

Verdict: Not enough firepower

MIAMI, FLORIDA – SEPTEMBER 08: Head Coach John Harbaugh of the Baltimore Ravens celebrates with fans after the game against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on September 08, 2019 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)

Baltimore Ravens @ 13/2

I do not care what you say, Lamar Jackson is not rushing his way to Championship success. Come playoff time, teams will play contain against him, roll in a spy and play zone coverage in behind.

That way, he’ll have to wait inside a breaking pocket and throw into accurate, tight windows rather than tossing up jump balls for Mark Andrews or downfield shots to Hollywood Brown.

Right now, teams are respecting his supposed passing ability by dropping too many in behind and bringing blitzes. They’ll soon see that the way to combat him is to contain his legs and let his brainfarts do the rest for you.

Verdict: Are you serious?!

BEt on the PAtriots to win it all again at Paddypower.com