NFL treble: This play at 9/2 can see you through Sunday night’s action

I’m not one to clap myself on the back, but I am five-for-six on spread-picks so far this season. See? You want to read now, don’t you? Fair play.

Week 3 of this NFL season is going to contain the youngest group of quarterbacks the league has seen in any given week in decades. It’s probably not a coincidence then, that the three quarterbacks I’m betting against are 24 or younger – and all the quarterbacks I’m backing in these spreads are 24 or over.

Year two-to-three in an NFL quarterback’s education sees the biggest jump in IQ. Time to take advantage.

Cincinnati v Buffalo, Sunday, 18:00

This line might be the strangest of the week. If you’ve been listening me to date, you’ll know how highly I speak of the 49ers, so this line is a huge overreaction to a heavy loss that spiralled out of control.

This Cinci team really aren’t a unit to come from behind – it’s not in their DNA. But if you give Dalton a lead, he’s far less likely to make completely stupid decisions. Joe Mixon was hurt last week and really shouldn’t have had those carries, but he’s in better health now and ready to run into a Bills defensive front that doesn’t boast massive mobility.

The Bills are a bit of a madness. That’s best summed up by their quarterbacking through Josh Allen. He’s evidently talented and might be the best showreel guy behind a certain Patrick Mahomes, but he’s a few audibles short of a successful play call, if you know what I mean.

If you’re giving me a (+6) head start on these Bills with almost anyone not named Miami, I’ll take it.

Verdict: Cincinnati (+6) @ Buffalo 10/11

Baltimore @ Kansas City, Sunday, 18:00

Patrick Mahomes in Arrowhead Stadium against a team who lack corner depth and whose strength lies in defending heavy packages.

Baltimore aren’t a high-IQ defence. They’re a brute-force defence.

So if you dictate formations to ensure lighter bodies on the field, then they struggle. Lamar Jackson’s about to be asked questions in a hostile environment and I think he’ll fail miserably under the pressure.

Verdict: Baltimore @ Kansas City (-5.5) 20/23

Pittsburgh @ San Francisco, Sunday, 21.30

These Niners are my pick for the NFC West for a number of reasons. The main one, of course, is because Jared Goff waits like a lost puppy for Sean McVay to tell him what to do. But the other reason is that I’ve long held the view that they’re the best defensive unit in the NFL. And this is before Jalen Ramsey could end up in Santa Clara.

Now that’s a frightening thought, isn’t it?

Mason Rudolph is starting his NFL career with a combination of three things: a beat-up running back in Conner, a depleted wide receiver corps and an interior pass rush.

None of these things help, I can assure you. Playing Saleh’s Cover 3 is usually a case of patience, as you’re mainly relying on your tight-end to find space between zones as the secondary level, and your wideouts to run crossers underneath.

Except you have to wait for crossers to develop. They develop over the middle. He won’t be able to see over the middle after two seconds of holding the ball.

Verdict: Pittsburgh @ San Francisco (-6.5) @ 10/11 

*The treble on these 3 selections pays 9/2 if they all win at the prices – but the markets are fluid.