Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts: Over 49 Total Points – 10/11
The Colts look like a different team this season, largely because they are one whenever Andrew Luck is healthy. He’s recovered from the health troubles that plagued recent seasons, and his team are now actually protecting him thanks to and improved O-line and new coach Frank Reich’s efforts to speed up their offence.
They’ve scored 24 points or more since week 3, and are regularly pushing 30. That runs made more impressive when you think that TY Hilton, their one top class receiver, has missed time in that span. Eric Ebron, Lions draft bust, has been scoring at almost a touchdown per game rate, and their defence, while improved, isn’t good enough to mean the offence can take a break.
Sep 16, 2018; Landover, MD, USA; Indianapolis Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (13) scores a touchdown against the Washington Redskins during the second half at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports
The Titans D will be a real test for Indy’s resurgence. They’ve been one of the toughest units in the league this year, no team’s conceded fewer points, with Jurrell Casey standing out on the line and Kevin Byard building his reputation in the secondary. They’ve restricted teams to 23 points or lower for eight weeks in a row.
Marcus Mariota is now healthy and making plays, which means Mike Vrabel’s team can score if needed too and makes them an intriguing team as the playoffs draw near.
This is a match-up of two first year coaches, and both look like sound appointments. While the Titans will hope to shut down Luck and co, I’d expect he’ll keep up his scoring rate and the total points should top 50.
Sep 23, 2018; Seattle, WA, USA; Dallas Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett motions to a player on the sidelines during the second half against the Seattle Seahawks at CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks won 24-13. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons: Dallas +3.5 – 4/5
The Cowboys have been a hard team to love this year, but Jerry Jones has made some moves for his boy Jason Garrett and Zeke Elliott is playing out of his mind, so they’re a tougher ask than the handicap suggests here, even on the road.
Especially when you consider the Falcons lost to Gregg Williams’s Browns last week – and not just lost, but were embarrassed by the Ohioans – while Dallas went out later that night and hauled the Eagles back to earth and deep into trouble in the NFC East.
Amari Cooper’s has a TD and 128 yards on 11 receptions since arriving from Oakland, but just his presence on the field means defences have to show more respect to the Cowboys – and that can help Zeke do even more.
Nov 11, 2018; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles tight end Zach Ertz (86) kneels down in front of Dallas Cowboys defensive end Demarcus Lawrence (90) in reaction to coming up short on a fourth down play during the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
He has the second most rushing yards in the league, only Todd Gurley’s run further. But while the Rams back is surrounded by innovative coaching and receiving talent, Elliott’s been on a bit of an island as Dallas offensive leader, especially with Dez Bryant and Jason Witten gone.
Atlanta had pulled themselves back into the playoff picture with three straight wins, but the Browns defeat wiped out a lot of the goodwill that run generated. They are a different team in their dome, but it looks like their season is over with the Saints and Panthers ahead of them in the NFC South.
Back the Cowboys with the points.
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*All odds correct at time of posting