Another week in a league where the total points scored is on track to increase 10% year on year and we have some more under bets.
LA Rams @ Denver: Total Points Under 51.5 – 20/23
The 2018 Greatest Show on Turf rolls into Mile High this weekend on a back-to-back road trip after clinching a close win against Seattle.
Travelling to Denver is always tough, even worse on a back to back road trip. Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp are trying to clear concussion protocol – a loss of either is a big blow to an offence that relies a lot on spacing, multiple play calls from the same formation and complex zone reads of defence.
I’m not sure the ‘next man up’ theory will apply here in the McVay offence.
As for the Broncos, their pass rush is as strong as ever and I’m not really looking into their game last week on the East Coast after a short week. Also, Bolles & Veldheer are carrying knocks on the offensive line which should impact efficiency in both the run and pass game and hopefully keep the scoreboard low for all four quarters.
Jacksonville @ Dallas: Total Points Under 41 – 20/23
Dak Prescott is only averaging 6.6 Yds per attempt (7th worse among all QB’s in NFL this year) even though the best ranked defence he has faced was NYG (10th before their blowout loss to Phi).
Meanwhile, Blake Bortles recorded six yards per play last week against KC and still put up a duck egg on the scoreboard in the first half.
Usually, that red zone efficiency might regress back to the mean but this Dallas red zone D is stifling. It’s an incredibly low total but I’m prediciting a field goal fest.
Even no TD Scorer at 50/1 or bigger is worth a small nibble.
*All odds correct at time of posting