Atlanta @ Pittsburgh: Total Points Under 58 – 20/23
Is this the worst bet of the season so far to cheer on? Probably! But as is the theme with most of my bets, I try to pick the week where recency bias has influenced the price just a little too much.
The Falcons have played three straight home games which has allowed their offence to gel and Calvin Ridley to emerge on the opposite side of Julio Jones.
That offence has a Jekyll & Hyde feel to it depending on where they are playing and the Steelers haven’t put up any second half points in the last two games. A few afternoon showers in the forecast at Heinz Field can only help us here also.
Jacksonville @ Kansas City: Total Points Under 49 – 20/21
Between the first bet and this one, watching Redzone on the weekend will not be enjoyable. Despite the amazing comeback on Monday Night, Mahomes was somewhat average for the first three quarters before turning on the MVP switch to deliver a statement win.
The Denver D is very solid but the Jags defence is downright nasty and should pressure Mahomes for all four quarters.
Also, the Chiefs D gave up over seven yards per carry on the ground against Denver, which aligns perfectly for Bortles and Yeldon to play keep-away from Mahomes, dominate time of possession and limit explosive plays.
*All odds correct at time of posting