Time to step right in front of the Pat Mahomes train.
There will only be so long that he can bail out this defence, which is ranked dead last in defensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders.
San Fran have performed as expected, running Minnesota close as a six-point ‘dog and being a dodgy defensive holding call away from probably beating Detroit last week by 17 as a six-point favourite.
Before the season this game was KC -3, meaning the market rated both teams almost identically when homefield advantage is factored in. Mahomes throws for 10 TDs and no INTs in the first two weeks and we get an extra 3.5pts for San Fran just like that!
I won’t lie and say I haven’t adjusted my ratings for Mahomes’ excellent start to the season (1.5pt upgrade). A 3.5pt adjustment is too much in my opinion with the defence giving up almost 7 yards per play – time to trust Jimmy G in what should be an early season block buster in Arrowhead.
A team doesn’t cross midfield on offence until the final play of the game in Week 2 – time to put our money behind them in Week 3!
For the Cardinals, the returning Markus Golden on the defensive line will help a unit who have not got a break because of the inept Arizona offence.
Mitchell Trubisky hasn’t done much outside the scripted plays and drives to start games and in my opinion doesn’t deserve to be anything bigger than a field goal favourite on the road out west.
No matter how good Khalil Mack and the rest of that Bears defence is, I predict their offence will struggle once they run the 10 or 15 plays they work all week on.
It runs true for most football games, but whoever turns the ball over less should win this one and at the price, I’m happy to take a punt on Arizona (again)!
*All odds correct at time of posting