Denver Broncos (-3.0) v Oakland Raiders – 20/21
Rinse and repeat from the Week 2 pick with the Broncos this weekend. We don’t feel the Denver team is rated strongly enough at the Mile High Stadium, where it has the biggest home field advantage and one of the best records in the NFL over the past five-plus seasons (Brady & Belichick being the other crowd).
Coming off a road game on the East Coast and travelling to Denver for a key divisional game is an abysmal schedule for the Raiders. They just got bullied by Washington last weekend and look for the physical Bronco defence to influence the game and shut down an Oakland passing attack, which hasn’t really hit its stride so far this season.
Houston Texans (+2.0) v Tennessee Titans – 20/21
Given this price, the Mariota and company hype train has definitely left the station. Sure, they put up 33 on that Seattle defence but they were at home, it was 30+ degrees and horribly humid. If you take away DeMarco Murray’s long TD run, he only averaged over three yards per carry.
It’s a pretty misleading box-score and it’s clear that Seattle got away from their gameplan with Wilson having close to 50 pass attempts. The Texans offence is a lot more balanced and when you can establish the run, you also must commit a man to the mobile Watson at QB. Thus opening up the defence for play-action passes, underneath crossing routes, etc.
All very safe routes to let a rookie QB settle at home as he’s making his first start at Reliant Stadium. Additionally, Johnathan Cyprien at safety is currently set to miss the game for the Titans and that’ll be huge blow considering Will Fuller is back for the Texans to take away some of the attention from DeAndre Hopkins.
Under 48.5 points in Buffalo Bills v Atlanta Falcons – 20/23
There’s an unusual match-up occurring in Atlanta this weekend with the Bills visiting. This bet isn’t opposing either offence, but it’s more so focusing on their pace of play. Atlanta are top five in the league in time taken between plays and are averaging 25+ rushing attempts per game.
Meanwhile, the Bills always look to run the ball first before passing and disregarding the Packers game, because they were missing both offensive tackles, the Falcons defence is surrendering close to 4.5yds per carry on the ground.
Combine these two and we have a game which will see the clock ticking, which therefore reduces the number of possessions and scoring opportunities both offences will have.
* All odds correct at time of posting