UFC 312 Tips
Gabriel Santos v Jack Jenkins – Jack Jenkins to win
Tom Nolan v Viacheslav Borshchev – Tom Nolan to win
Bruna Brasil v Wang Cong – Bruna Brasil to win
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
UFC 312
Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney
TV: TNT Sports Box Office
Overnight Saturday, February 8th-Sunday, February 9th
The Octagon heads Down Under to Sydney, Australia for UFC 312, as the UFC brings a fight card that certainly packs a punch.
The event will be headlined by a rematch for the UFC middleweight title, as South Africa’s reigning champion Dricus Du Plessis faces off against the man he edged by split decision to win the belt, American Sean Strickland, while in the co-main event, women’s strawweight champion Zhang Weili will be looking to keep the 115-pound title in China as she takes on undefeated challenger from the United States, Tatiana Suarez.
We’ll look at those two headlining fights a little closer to fight night, but for now, let’s delve a little deeper into the fight card to pick out some value with three underdog picks that could deliver big wins on Saturday night in Sydney.
Gabriel Santos v Jack Jenkins
Fancy an underdog pick whose only loss in his last 11 fights came via an injury, rather than a superior opponent? Look no further.
Jack Jenkins is a huge sleeper pick on this card. He’s an all-action fighter who always brings plenty of pace and excitement to his bouts, and he’s finished nine of his 13 career wins inside the distance.
“Phar” – nicknamed after legendary racehorse Phar Lap – has been excellent in his four UFC fights so far, winning three of them. The lone defeat came as a result of an arm injury that left him frustrated and determined to bounce back. And, in his most recent appearance at UFC 305, he did just that with a third-round TKO of Brazil’s Herbert Burns.
He’s taking on Brazil’s Gabriel Santos, a fellow graduate of Dana White’s Contender Series, but one who hasn’t fully established himself on the sport’s biggest stage just yet.
In three UFC bouts, Santos has gone 1-2, with his only victory in the Octagon so far coming on the scorecards against Chinese wrestler Yi Zha, who was making his UFC debut.
Jenkins is a much more proven commodity at this level and also has the advantage of fighting at home against a fighter who will have had to make a significant trip to Australia for the fight. For Jenkins, this is a home game, and one that, at 13/8, he’s outstanding odds to back for the underdog victory.
PICK: Jack Jenkins to win
Tom Nolan v Viacheslav Borshchev
Whenever the UFC comes to Australia, it’s always worth paying attention to who the local fighters are facing, because the home advantage can be significant. For starters, the preliminary card fights start in the morning, which is highly unusual for a UFC event, but it’s done to keep the show on track with US primetime.
What it does mean is opposition fighters flying in to Australia have to do more than just acclimatise to their surroundings after a long trip. They also have to prepare to do battle at a completely different time of day to the norm.
That will apply when Australia’s Tom Nolan takes on Viacheslav Borshchev at UFC 312. Nolan will be on his usual time, while Borshchev will have to adapt to a very different fight week.
He’ll also have to find some form, too. “Slava Claus” has won just two of his last six, with his last appearance seeing him claim a split-decision victory over James Llontop last August.
Nolan, meanwhile, has found his feet in the UFC following his debut defeat to Nikolas Motta a year ago. He’s since TKO’d Victor Martinez in a round, then outpointed Alex Reyes at UFC 305 in Perth.
He’s back on home soil again for this one, and with 11/10 odds next to his name, he’s an excellent underdog pick to get the job done in what should be a cracker of a bout.
PICK: Tom Nolan to win
Bruna Brasil v Wang Cong
Looking down the preliminary card fights, the women’s flyweight bout between Wang Cong and Bruna Brasil leapt off the page.
Firstly, it has all the makings of being a great fight. Wang is a super-confident striker with a good record heading into the UFC, while Brasil is a smart, scrappy talent who comes out of one of the hottest gyms in MMA right now, The Fighting Nerds.
Wang was somewhat found out last time out as she suffered a shock submission defeat to debutant Gabriella Fernandes after going into the fight as a staggering 1/9 favourite, so expect her to come out all guns blazing this time around as she looks to bounce back from her first career loss.
But that defeat to Fernandes exposed a few holes in the Chinese fighter’s game, and that’s where Brasil comes in. The 31-year-old from Maringa, Parana is 2-2 in the UFC so far, but she produced an outstanding performance in her last performance against Molly McCann at UFC 304.
That win showed a major leap in performance from her previous bouts, and it seems that, along with her fellow Fighting Nerds teammates, everyone from that gym is levelling up in a big way.
She’s a big underdog to defeat Wang at UFC 312, but I think she has a much better shot than that, and 5/2 is big value on a fighter who could potentially find herself sharing the cage with ranked opposition later this year if she gets a stoppage win over Wang in Sydney.
PICK: Bruna Brasil to win
UFC 312 Tips
Gabriel Santos v Jack Jenkins – Jack Jenkins to win
Tom Nolan v Viacheslav Borshchev – Tom Nolan to win
Bruna Brasil v Wang Cong – Bruna Brasil to win
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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