We’ve got UFC 311 on the agenda this Saturday night/Sunday morning and one huge showdown dominates the bill. Our Octogon grabbler Simon Head has dived into the Lightweight battle between Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan in California.
UFC 311 Tips
3:00am Islam Makhachev v Arman Tsarukyan – Makhachev by points
UFC 311
When: Saturday night/Sunday morning 18th-19th January
Where: Intuit Dome, California
TV: TNT Sports, Discovery+
The main event of UFC 311 sees reigning undisputed lightweight champion of the world Makhachev take on familiar opposition, and he’s a solid bet to produce a similar result to the first meeting in Saturday night’s rematch.
SAME MATCHUP, SAME RESULT?
Makhachev faces Armenian contender Tsarukyan in a rematch of their meeting from 2019 in St. Petersburg, which Makhachev took via unanimous decision. That fight was Tsarukyan’s first in the UFC as he stepped up on short notice to take on Makhachev, who was already tipped for big things after arriving in the UFC as the protege of undefeated former lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Since then, both men have improved massively. Makhachev has won nine in a row since the first meeting, capturing the undisputed lightweight tile with a submission finish of Charles Oliveira at UFC 280, then defending the belt three times – twice against featherweight legend Alexander Volkanovski, once against Dustin Poirier – to cement himself as the top 155-pound fighter on the planet.
But while Makhachev has been reigning over the lightweight division, Tsarukyan has been climbing the ranks in a bid to face his old nemesis again. Now, after earning his title shot, he gets his chance. But will things be that much different in the rematch?
BACK THE MAKH
Makhachev is an interesting champion. Despite being universally respected – he’s the current No.1 pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC, as per the official rankings, it still doesn’t feel as if he fully gets the credit he deserves for his skills in the cage.
But in this matchup against a driven and dangerous opponent, will he prove once again that he’s head and shoulders above the rest?
Tsarukyan is an incredible fighter. His striking is solid, but his wrestling and grappling are outstanding. But, everywhere Tsarukyan is good, Makhachev is better.
Looking at all of the key factors that could play a factor in this fight, the defending champion has the advantage in almost every department. Striking, wrestling, strength, grappling, title-fight experience – Makhachev has the crucial edge in each category.
That’s not to say Tsarukyan has no chance. If he can force Makhachev onto his back, we’ll see the Russian tested like he has rarely been before. But getting him there will be a formidable task. Tsarukyan will have to deal with a size disadvantage, too, with Makhachev standing three inches taller than the challenger.
Tsarukyan possesses a slight two-inch reach advantage, however, and his best shot at success might be landing something big on the champion’s chin. Makhachev has been finished with strikes before, and a striking-first approach by Tsarukyan might be his best bet.
But unless Tsarukyan can hit the jackpot with a perfectly-placed shot, the prevailing thought is Makhachev has the skills to outwork Tsarukyan over a five-round duration to retain his title on the scorecards. And with Makhachev a 1/4 shot to win the fight, the 5/4 odds on the Russian retaining his title by points looks a decent option.
UFC 311 Tips
3:00am Islam Makhachev v Arman Tsarukyan – Makhachev by points
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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