UFC 310 Tips
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Machado Garry – Ian Machado Garry to win
Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov – Alexander Volkov to win
Nate Landwehr vs. Dooho Choi – Dooho Choi to win
Anthony Smith vs. Dominick Reyes – Smith to win
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
UFC 310
T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
TV: TNT Sports Box Office
Overnight Saturday December 7th-Sunday December 8th
UFC 310 is just around the corner, with the UFC’s final pay-per-view event of 2024 set to give Las Vegas one final big fight night before the holiday season takes over in Sin City.
The event is headlined by a flyweight title clash between Alexandre Pantoja and former RIZIN FF champion from Japan, Kai Asakura, and we’ll bring you a preview of that clash during fight week.
But before we turn our attention to the two men on the poster, let’s look at a quartet of undercard fights that could offer some value by backing the underdog.
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Machado Garry
Someone’s 0 has got to go in the co-main event, as undefeated welterweight contenders Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machado Garry go head to head in a bid to earn a shot at the UFC welterweight title.
Rakhmonov was all set to challenge Belal Muhammad for the title at UFC 310. But after the reigning champion was forced out with a bone infection in his foot, Rakhmonov took the gangster’s move and accepted a fight with a fellow undefeated contender.
Rakhmonov is the betting favourite for the matchup, and it’s not hard to see why. He looked more dominating in his fights and was already preparing for a five-round title fight for this event. Swapping in Garry changes little for him, other than a change in fighting style.
Garry, meanwhile, is switching gears after initially agreeing to a fight with Joaquin Buckley later in the month. However, the Irishman has brought his fight date forward to compete at UFC 310.
Rakhmonov is a quietly relentless finisher of fights, but too many people are ruling Garry out of this bout too easily.
Garry has an elite-level fight IQ and works with a world-class team at Chute Boxe under coach Diego Lima. This has helped Garry level up his game, and he now looks like a legitimate contender at 170 pounds.
He’s up against a dangerous finisher, but while Rakhmonov’s abilities shouldn’t be underestimated, the Kazakh does have holes in his game, and he can get drawn into situations where he can get clipped when he really shouldn’t be.
Expect Garry to be well-prepped and well-drilled, and he’s smart enough and strict enough in his approach to stick to a game plan and do what he needs to do to win. This isn’t a fight to chase a highlight-reel finish. It’s a title eliminator.
Victory is all that matters, and Garry will have that uppermost in his mind when he steps into the Octagon.
It might mean a less exciting fight than many are hoping for. But I can see Garry keeping things on the outside and kickboxing from range early before taking advantage of Rakhmonov in the later rounds after making him chase for the first 15 minutes.
It’s a much closer fight than many, including the oddsmakers, think, and the 5/2 available for a Garry victory represents good value compared to his actual chances of success.
Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov
While uncertainty rages at the top of the UFC’s heavyweight division, with Jon Jones seemingly less-then-excited at the prospect of having to face interim champion Tom Aspinall in 2025, two of the other contenders in the division will go head to head in a bid to push themselves into the championship conversation.
Jon Jones beat Ciryl Gane with embarrassing ease as his title tilt fell short in 2023, but he bounced back with a TKO finish of Serghei Spivac to get back to winning ways. But that win was in September 2023, and we haven’t seen “Bon Gamin” since.
Meanwhile, former Bellator heavyweight champion and perennial fringe contender in the UFC Volkov has bounced back brilliantly from his submission loss to Aspinall in 2022 and heads into UFC 310 on a four-fight win streak.
The odds have Gane as the favourite, but Volkov is a live underdog. He has the size and range to make life difficult for natural striker Gane on the feet, and his recent win over Sergei Pavlovich showed that he’s happy to take things to the mat, too.
Having seen how Jones utterly dominated Gane on the mat, Volkov may look to get Gane comfortable in the stand-up, then take him to the mat and search for the finish on the ground.
The 2/1 odds on a Volkov win look attractive here and offer much better value than the 4/11 on Gane. It’s a much closer fight than that, and Gane’s absence, coupled with Volkov’s recent renaissance, could deliver an upset victory.
Nate Landwehr vs. Dooho Choi
The opening bout on the main card of UFC 310 looks set to deliver an absolute banger, as fellow crowd-pleasers Nate “The Train” Landwehr and “The Korean Superboy” Dooho Choi go head to head in a fight that looks like a potential contender for Fight of the Night.
Landwehr doesn’t know how to take a backward step. He has heavy hands and a devil-may-care approach to his fights. That guarantees an explosive matchup with Choi, whose tendency to get involved in tear-ups has been a feature of his career, as well, with his bout against Cub Swanson inducted into the UFC Hall of Fame.
A crazy back-and-forth war is expected, but who wins? Landwehr carries the power advantage, but Choi beats him with speed. And that speed, coupled with Landwehr’s gung-ho approach, could see “The Korean Superboy” claim a stoppage victory in this one.
It’ll be a crazy contest for as long as it lasts. And, in a bout that’s a virtual coin flip on paper, I’m picking the underdog to get the job done.
Anthony Smith vs. Dominick Reyes
Looking down the fight card for the best value selection, I landed on this light heavyweight clash between two former title challengers.
Anthony Smith and Dominick Reyes fought and lost to Jon Jones back in the day. Reyes fared much the better of the two and arguably should have won that fight in a bout that went Jones’ way on the scorecards. But, since then, “The Devastator” has struggled to find any form.
Reyes’ loss to Jones in 2020 kick-started a run of four straight losses as, after his defeat to “Bones”, he was stopped with strikes by Jan Blachowicz, Jiri Prochazka and Ryan Spann.
Reyes bounced back in June with a first-round knockout of Dustin Jacoby, but against Smith, he’s facing someone who’ll bring him a much more varied attack than his most recent opponent.
Smith has alternated wins and losses through his last five outings, with a split-decision win over Ryan Spann and a first-round submission of Vitor Petrino’s notable victories.
Looking at the odds, Paddy has Reyes as a 3/10 favourite, with Smith a very tasty-looking 12/5. I like those odds on “Lionheart,” who is smart enough on the feet to cause concern for Reyes but is much more dangerous when the fight hits the mat.
Sure, Reyes hasn’t been submitted so far in his career. But Smith is a legit finisher of fights – 20 by KO/TKO, 15 by submission – and in a battle between two 205ers whose best days may be behind them, Smith’s more varied arsenal makes that 12/5 a very attractive value bet.
UFC 310 Tips
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Machado Garry – Ian Machado Garry to win
Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov – Alexander Volkov to win
Nate Landwehr vs. Dooho Choi – Dooho Choi to win
Anthony Smith vs. Dominick Reyes – Smith to win
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
READ MORE
- Grapple with our best UFC news and betting tips at Paddy Power News
The Paddy Power Guide To Safer Gambling – Everything You Need To Know
