UFC 309 betting tips
4:15am Bo Nickal v Paul Craig – Bo Nickal to win & round 2 to start
4:45am Charles Oliveira v Michael Chandler – Oliveira by submission or Chandler by KO/TKO
5:30am Jon Jones v Stipe Miocic – Jon Jones to win & round 2 to start
- An accumulator with these bets pays at approximately 5/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
UFC 309
Madison Square Garden, New York
TV: TNT Sports Box Office
Overnight Saturday, November 16th-Sunday, November 17th
Nickal v Craig – Nickal to win & round 2 to start
Bo Nickal is a huge favourite here. I can’t get behind backing him on the Win market at that price, it’s too short, and I’m not really on the Bo hype train to begin with.
I really should be looking at Paul Craig. He’s got world-class Jui-Jitsu, with six of his nine UFC wins coming by submission.
Not to mention, he has a KO/TKO victory that involved breaking Jamahal Hill’s arm with an armbar before locking up a triangle choke and throwing up elbows from the bottom position. That’s a submission win in my book.
Speaking of big scalps hanging up over the Scot’s mantlepiece, he submitted the current No.1 contender at Light Heavyweight, Magomed Ankalaev via triangle choke. Paul Craig by submission is 11/1. I’m going to do that as a single. However, for my acca, we’re not going to put something so speculative in there.
The reality is Paul Craig loses a lot. He has eight losses on his record, four of which have come in his last five fights. As I said, I’m not on the Bo bandwagon. He is 6-0 with five first-round victories, but he hasn’t fought anyone ranked yet, and he hasn’t fought anyone you had heard of before or since.
This is his toughest test, considering his skillset revolves around getting takedowns, and Paul Craig is so dangerous off his back; I think Bo will have to tread cautiously, at least in the first round, when Paul Craig’s submission threat will be most dangerous.
In my eyes, the #WhatOddsPaddy selection—Bo Nickal to win and round 2 to start—is really good value.
Oliveira v Chandler – Oliveira sub or Chandler KO/TKO
MMA math predicts the outcome by focusing on the results of any previous fights between the two fighters and the results of fights where they share common opponents.
Fortunately for us, you don’t have to delve too far back into the archives, and you don’t need to break out the protractor to solve this one.
From November 2021 to December 2022, Oliveira and Chandler were in a round-robin of sorts, fighting each other before each fighting Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje. Charles Oliveira won all three of his fights. Michael Chandler lost all three of his.
Betting against MMA math usually doesn’t bode well for me, but I’m just not ready to rule Michael Chandler out here.
He was very much in every fight he lost, squandering his big opportunities to win against Poirier and Oliveira. And Oliveira seems to get rattled or knocked down in almost every fight he has won lately. I’m hesitant to read too much into the results of these fights.
A bet I feel comfortable making is that this fight will not go the distance. Both fighters have an entertaining, energetic pace. Chandler has knockout power. Oliveira has the most submission victories in the UFC. Both fighters have very porous defences, which should lead to opportunities to attack with their best weapons.
With this fight scheduled for five rounds, we have a ton of time to see Oliveira get the tap or Chandler get a KO/TKO stoppage. We’re going with another #WhatOddsPaddy market, Charles Oliveira by submission or Michael Chandler by KO/TKO.
Jones v Miocic – Jones to win & round 2 to start
Fighters leaving their gloves in the centre of the octagon has been a symbolic gesture to signify the athlete retiring from the sport. I think we might see two pairs of gloves on the canvas at the end of UFC 309. Stipe is 42 years old now and hasn’t fought in 3 years.
Jon is 37 and has only fought once in the last four years. Both of these guys are past their prime, and we know Jon wants nothing to do with an Aspinall fight next if he beats Stipe.
I start with that to say, we probably won’t see a peak Jon Jones or Stipe Miocic performance. Even in the last 10 years, Jon hasn’t been stopping his opponents like he did in his early 20s. In his last 9 fights, he has 2 wins inside the scheduled time with the remaining 7 going all 25 minutes.
Stipe has proven to be durable only getting stopped once in the 1st round in his career. I really like the #WhatOddsPaddy market – Jon Jones to win and Round 2 to start
UFC 309 tips
4:15am Bo Nickal v Paul Craig #WhatOddsPaddy – Bo Nickal to win & Round 2 to start
4:45am Charles Oliveira v Michael Chandler #WhatOddsPaddy – Charles Oliveira by submission or Michael Chandler by KO/TKO.
5:30am Jon Jones v Stipe Miocic #WhatOddsPaddy – Jon Jones to win & round 2 to start
- An accumulator with these bets pays at approximately 5/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
READ MORE
- Grapple with our best UFC news and betting tips at Paddy Power News
- UFC 309 betting tips: 4 undercard fights to follow at Madison Square Garden
- UFC 309 Betting Tips: Who’s coming out on top in Jon Jones v Stipe Miocic clash?
The Paddy Power Guide To Safer Gambling – Everything You Need To Know
