On Saturday night heavyweight champ Jon Jones takes on former two-time champion Stipe Miocic at New York’s iconic Madison Square Garden for the biggest prize in MMA – the undisputed UFC heavyweight title.
The bout looks pretty one-sided on paper, but our tipster Simon Head thinks there’s still value to be had in the UFC 309 main event, Jon Jones v Stipe Miocic.
UFC Tips
Jon Jones to win by points decision
SETTING THE SCENE
It’s a bout between two all-time greats of the Octagon, but it’s also a bit of a strange matchup. Sure, Miocic is the greatest UFC heavyweight champion in history, but he’s 42, hasn’t fought in more than three and a half years, and when he last did, he got brutally knocked out by Francis Ngannou as he lost his heavyweight title at UFC 260.
He’s facing Jones, who returned after a three-year hiatus of his own to defeat Ciryl Gane with ease and capture the heavyweight crown vacated by Ngannou following his departure from the UFC.
What it all means is we have a legendary former heavyweight champion who hasn’t won a fight since 2020 taking on the current champion, who has only fought once in three years, and only has 124 seconds of cage time as a UFC heavyweight.
So yeah, it’s a bit of a strange one! But, despite all of this, it’s a matchup that does offer a little value to those of us on the lookout for a decent route to profit.
POINTS MAKE PRIZES
Jones is the clear favourite to win. He’s listed as a 1/6 shot, which means his implied probability of winning is a staggering 85.69 percent.
But, despite Jones being virtually unbackable at those odds, Paddy’s other markets offer a chance to claim a decent return on a Jones victory. The odds on the different ways Jones can beat Miocic make for very interesting reading, with “Bones” an 11/10 shot to win by KO/TKO and 23/10 to get the job done by submission.
Jones has stopped an opponent with strikes just once in the last decade, and his only submission win during that time came against Gane, who was hopelessly out of his depth on the mat against someone as seasoned as Jones. I like the submission option much better than TKO/KO, but the real value lies elsewhere, and the stats make it a clear pick.
Seven out of Jones’ last 10 fights went to the scorecards, and his relative lack of knockout power at light heavyweight suggests that, unless he suddenly discovers fight-ending punch power at heavyweight, the chances are he may need to call the judges into action again. The price available on Jones to win via points looks huge, and is the clear selection for a fight that, on paper, looks pretty one-sided.
Even if you want to give Miocic a chance, that will probably need to come via KO/TKO, but the price on that makes a Jones win on points even more appealing. If you wanted to keep your options open on a Miocic win, you could simply bet on the fight to go the distance which cashes out whoever gets their hand raised after the five rounds.
Or, if you wanted side bet on Miocic to get the job done, the price available on Miocic to win in Round 4 or 5, or by decision, looks like a great option.
UFC Tips
Jon Jones to win by points decision
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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