UFC 307 BETTING TIPS
*Times listed are all estimated GMT start time
04.45: Raquel Pennington v Julianna Pena
#Whatoddspaddy – Julianna Pena to land 3+ takedowns and win by decision
#Whatoddspaddy – Julianna Pena to land 2+ takedowns and win inside the distance
UFC 307
Delta Center, Salt Lake City
TV: TNT Sports
Overnight Saturday, October 5th – Sunday, October 6th
UFC 307 heads to Salt Lake City, Utah on October 5, and the undisputed women’s bantamweight title is on the line in the co-main event.
After nearly 20 years in MMA, Raquel ‘Rocky’ Pennington finally achieved her dream of becoming a UFC world champion when she outpointed Brazil’s Mayra Bueno Silva for the vacant 135-pound title at UFC 297.
Now Pennington has gone from the hunter to the hunted, and ‘The Venezuelan Vixen’ Julianna Pena is looking to topple the newly-crowned champion in her first title defence.
Former bantamweight champion Pena is no stranger to dethroning champions – she shocked the world at UFC 269 as she submitted the great Amanda Nunes to capture the title in Las Vegas. Pena was a colossal underdog heading into that fight, but things look very different heading into this clash with Pennington in Utah.
But this matchup with Pennington is thought to be a much closer bout, with the champion an odds-on favourite compared to the challenger.
Raquel Pennington v Julianna Pena fight odds
Pennington is riding the best run of form of her 24-fight professional career. ‘Rocky’s’ last defeat came on the scorecards against former champion Holly Holm at UFC 246 back in January 2020. Since then, Pennington has fought six times, and claimed six victories, with her last win, against Silva, seeing her capture the women’s bantamweight crown.
Pennington’s wins have come mostly on the scorecards, with just five of her 16 career wins coming inside the distance – one by knockout and four by submission. It suggests her most likely route to victory will be to outwork her opponent over the 25-minute duration.
If Pennington is known for getting her wins on the cards, Pena is known as a fighter who dominates and eventually breaks, opponents.
‘The Venezuelan Vixen’ has five submissions and three knockouts from her 11 career victories, with her last two victories, against Nunes and former Olympic wrestling medallist Sara McMann, both coming via rear-naked choke submission.
Somewhat unusually, Pena is getting her shot at the gold, despite losing the title to Nunes last time out. With the series between the pair standing at one win apiece, Pena was hoping to face Nunes for a third time in a trilogy clash, but after Pena was forced out of their trilogy bout, Nunes faced and defeated Irene Aldana, then retired, leaving Pena without her trilogy fight.
Now she’s back, and ready to return to the top of the division. But against a gritty champion like Pennington, Pena needs a big performance to become a two-time champion at 135 pounds.
Keys to victory
It’s a fight between a champion who grinds out victories on the scorecards and a former champion who grinds her opponents into the mat. And the keys to victory lie in arguably the most important skillset in MMA – wrestling.
Whoever controls the wrestling exchanges will control the action, with Pennington likely to prefer the action standing up, while Pena will look to blitz her way in with punches, then drag the action to the mat, where she shines.
It’s hard to see Pennington stopping Pena, unless she can lock up a tight guillotine and surprise Pena as the challenger shoots for a takedown. More likely, she’ll have to repeatedly stuff Pena’s takedown attempts, then out strike Pena down the stretch as the action moves into the championship rounds.
For Pena, meanwhile, the tactics are simple – be a steamroller. Pennington’s knockout record shouldn’t deter Pena from walking through the champion’s punches. And, once she gets her hands on ‘Rocky’, she needs to get her to the mat, establish top position, and get to work with ground strikes until she earns a TKO, or an opportunity opens up for a submission finish. If she keeps Pennington off her feet, a dominant decision win could also be a distinct possibility.
It might take multiple takedowns, and multiple rounds, but if Pena is to be successful, that familiar blueprint will likely be the route she takes to get the win.
Raquel Pennington v Julianna Pena Betting Tips
Pennington may be in the best form of her career, but if Pena brings her usual intensity to the Octagon in Salt Lake City, there could be an underdog win for the challenger on fight night.
With #WHATODDSPADDY, you have the chance to build your own bet. Here’s a couple of options you might want to consider.
Julianna Pena to land 3+ takedowns and win by decision
Pena’s dominant approach and smothering top game means takedowns seem a near-cert for the challenger. If it goes the distance, I’d expect her to land at least three.
Julianna Pena to land 2+ takedowns and win inside the distance
If Pena is able to get the finish early, she might only need a couple. Pennington’s defensive skills – she’s only been finished twice in her career – mean the finish won’t come easy, so it will likely take at least a couple of takedowns before Pena is able to find a finish.
UFC BETTING TIPS
*Times listed are all estimated GMT start time
03:00: Raquel Pennington v Julianna Pena
#Whatoddspaddy – Julianna Pena to land 3+ takedowns and win by decision
#Whatoddspaddy – Julianna Pena to land 2+ takedowns and win inside the distance
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