Alex Pereira v Khalil Rountree Jr betting tips: Expect fireworks in UFC 307 clash

Our tipster Simon Head cannot see the main event going the distance.

By / UFC / 1 month ago

UFC 307 BETTING TIPS

*Times listed are all estimated GMT start time 

05:30: Alex Pereira v Khalil Rountree
#WhatOddsPaddy: Alex Pereira to land a takedown and win by KO
#WhatOddsPaddy: Alex Pereira to land two knockdowns and win by KO in Round 2

UFC 307
Delta Center, Salt Lake City
TV: TNT Sports
Overnight Saturday, October 5th – Sunday, October 6th

From the vast technicolour dome of the Sphere in Las Vegas to the high-altitude of Salt Lake City, the UFC’s Octagon is ready to deliver another spectacular pay-per-view event, with two title fights set to feature at the top of the card.

Last week, we ran the rule over the co-main event, as undisputed women’s bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington gets set to put her title on the line against former champion Julianna Pena. And now, as we hurtle towards fight night in Utah, we take a look at the main event of the evening, as reigning 205-pound champion of the world Alex Pereira looks to defend his undisputed UFC light heavyweight crown against Khalil Rountree Jr.

ALEX PEREIRA VS. KHALIL ROUNTREE JR FIGHT ODDS

THE FORM GUIDE

As you’d expect from two fighters set to throw down in a world title fight, both Pereira and Rountree are in stellar form. But what makes this matchup particularly interesting is the fact that both men are putting their opponents away in devastating fashion.

Since his middleweight title loss to old foe Israel Adesanya in 2023, “Poatan” has moved up to light heavyweight, and looked arguably even better than he did at middleweight. In his four fights in his new weight class, he’s picked up four wins, three by stoppage, and all over former world champions.

Now he heads into Saturday night’s title defence having knocked out each of his last three opponents, with neither Jiri Prochazka (twice) or Jamahal Hill making it to the third round. Indeed, Hill didn’t even get out of the first. Pereira is a man you stand and trade with at your own risk. But you could say something very similar about Rountree.

The American is riding a five-fight win streak, with four of them coming via KO or TKO. He hasn’t lost since 2021, and hasn’t been stopped since 2019. He’s in the best form of his UFC career and, while some felt his title shot has come a little early, he has the mindset, and the power, to spring a shock on fight night.

KEYS TO VICTORY

While this is a fight between two men who prefer to stand and trade on the feet, Pereira’s striking credentials far outstrip those of Rountree, who boasts prodigious power, but without the technique and finesse the Brazilian possesses.

That means that, counter to his usual tendencies, Rountree’s best path to success is going to involve wrestling. Whether it’s landing takedowns throughout the fight or at least making Pereira think twice about the threat of the takedown, Rountree needs to establish his wrestling potential early to prevent the champion from getting too comfortable on the feet.

Pereira, meanwhile, will likely just go about his business in the same fashion we’ve seen in recent fights, slowly, methodically applying pressure, landing nasty, chopping leg kicks and connecting with heavy punches when in the pocket. He’ll look to keep it standing, and his work with former UFC light heavyweight champion and now coach and mentor Glover Teixeira will be key as he makes sure his defensive wrestling is on point for this one. And if Rountree looks happy standing and banging, it’s not out of the question that Pereira pulls a bit of a surprise and lands a takedown of his own.

Ultimately, though, it’s likely to come down to one thing – who will connect cleanly on whose chin first? Whoever does is likely to be heading home with the belt.

Alex Pereira v Khalil Rountree Betting Tips

Given the concussive power both men bring to the table, it’s almost inconceivable that the fight could make it to the final scorecards. A knockout would seem a near-cert – Paddy thinks it’s a 1/9 shot, with the fight going the distance a 5/1 chance (odds correct at time of writing).

It’ll either be a huge shock and a KO win for Rountree, or it’ll be another highlight-reel finish for one for the most devastating knockout artists to set foot in the Octagon.

But however you are viewing this one, you can build your own bet for fight night with #WhatOddsPaddy, and here’s a couple of potential options to follow, or inspire you to build your own…

Alex Pereira to land a takedown and win by KO

Alex Pereira to land two knockdowns and win by KO in Round 2

UFC BETTING TIPS

*Times listed are all estimated GMT start time 

05:30: Alex Pereira v Khalil Rountree
#WhatOddsPaddy: Alex Pereira to land a takedown and win by KO
#WhatOddsPaddy: Alex Pereira to land two knockdowns and win by KO in Round 2

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