UFC 307 Undercard preview
*Fight times to be confirmed
Stephen Thompson v Joaquin Buckley
Jose Aldo v Mario Bautista
Roman Dolidze v Kevin Holland
Ketlen Vieira v Kayla Harrison
UFC 307
WHEN: Overnight Saturday/Sunday October 5-6
WHERE: Delta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah
TV: TNT Sports
After the pageantry and storytelling of UFC 306 at the Sphere, the Octagon goes back on the road as it heads a short hop east to Salt Lake City, Utah for UFC 307.
The fight card for the event is absolutely loaded with top-drawer matchups, including a pair of title fights in the main and co-main event slots, and we’ll look ahead to those in the coming weeks.
But right now, let’s take a look at a handful of high-octane undercard bouts that offer a variety of fascinating storylines we can follow from a betting perspective.
Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson v Joaquin Buckley
FIGHT ODDS
It’s impossible not to like Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson, but likeability doesn’t always win fights, and he’s up against it here against a surging Joaquin Buckley, who is starting to turn his raw athletic talent into a win streak having dropped down from middleweight to the welterweight division.
Since moving down to 170 pounds, Buckley has won four in a row, with wins over Andre Fialho, Alex Morono, Vicente Luque, and Nursulton Ruziboev. He’s shown a solid gas tank and plenty of punch power in all of his four fights. Most importantly, he’s starting to put his all-around MMA game together.
Against “Wonderboy” he’ll face an elite striker who is a master of range and has the acumen on the feet to catch out Buckley if he doesn’t mind his P’s and Q’s when he looks to attack.
But momentum is huge in this sport, and with Buckley on a four-fight tear, and Thompson having won just one in his last four, the odds certainly favour “New Mansa” continuing his streak and moving towards the division’s elite.
And, while “Wonderboy” has a string of highlight-reel finishes, none can compare to the biggest KO on Buckley’s record, as he finished Impa Kasanganay with the sort of technique you only see in video games.
Jose Aldo v Mario Bautista
FIGHT ODDS:
Jose Aldo may be firmly in the veteran stage of his career, but the former UFC featherweight champion remains a world-class operator. Just ask the likes of Pedro Munhoz, Rob Font, and Jonathan Martinez, who all found themselves on the wrong end of decision losses to “The King of Rio.”
Against Mario Bautista, Aldo faces an in-form rising star of the division, who will be looking to earn his stripes as a legitimate contender by defeating the UFC Hall of Famer.
Bautista is 14-2 for his career and is riding a six-fight win streak that has convinced the oddsmakers to install him as the betting favourite for this one. But it’s worth noting that of all those six wins, only Ricky Simon (his most recent win) comes close to the level of the opponents Aldo has been sharing the cage with over the past decade or more.
Aldo has the technical skills to outbox just about anyone at 135 pounds, and he’s demonstrated that, at the age of 38, that’s still the case. Make no mistake, Aldo is a live underdog in this fight, and Aldo by decision, looks like a strong underdog pick.
Bautista has the skills to go a long way at 135 pounds, but he’ll have to hit a new level to defeat Aldo. If you’re looking for an underdog to back at UFC 307, Aldo might just be your man.
Roman Dolidze v Kevin Holland
FIGHT ODDS:
Roman Dolidze might not be the most fashionable name in the UFC’s middleweight division, but he might just be one of the toughest to deal with.
The Georgian has been in outstanding form and has won five of his last seven, with his only losses coming against former title challenger Marvin Vettori and French contender Nassourdine Imavov. But his last outing, up at light heavyweight, saw him defeat former title challenger Anthony Smith at UFC 303. Now he returns to 185 pounds, and plans to make a statement against the always-entertaining Kevin Holland.
Holland’s willingness to jump back and forth between weight classes has made him a real company man for the UFC, but it hasn’t always helped his record. “Trailblazer” has struggled to string together a consistent run of wins over the last three years. Still, despite his results, Holland is competitive in every fight he participates in. His sneaky good submission game is the perfect foil to his rangy boxing skills, as he showed with his armbar finish of Michal Oleksiejczuk at UFC 302.
Those skills will be put to the test against the teak-tough Dolidze, and while the odds have Holland as the narrow favourite, I like the idea of betting on the bout to go the distance, with two seasoned campaigners who know how to go all 15 minutes set to go head to head.
Ketlen Vieira v Kayla Harrison
FIGHT ODDS:
It took less than a round and a half for Kayla Harrison to put the entire UFC bantamweight division on notice, and now she’s ready to surge into championship contention at UFC 307.
Standing in her way is perennial fringe contender Ketlen Vieira, whose UFC record shows that she’s plenty good enough to defeat top-level opposition, but has struggled for consistency during her UFC run.
Harrison’s path to victory is no secret. She’ll look to close the distance, wrestle Vieira to the floor, get top position and smash her opponent until either the referee stops the fight, or an opportunity opens up for a submission finish.
That’s what happened against former world champ Holly Holm on her Octagon debut at UFC 300, and she’s a colossal favourite to do something very similar against Vieira at UFC 307.
The best route to a half-decent win could be to choose Harrison’s method of victory, but some may like Vieira’s chances of stinging Harrison on the feet and claiming a huge win along similar lines to her compatriot Larissa Pacheco, who stunned Harrison in the PFL lightweight tournament final back in 2022.
But that’s a very long shot, and we’re more than likely going to see Harrison claim another dominant win, then get on the microphone and announce her impending challenge for the winner of the bantamweight title bout that will be contested later that same night in Salt Lake City.
UFC 307 Undercard
Stephen Thompson v Joaquin Buckley
Jose Aldo v Mario Bautista
Roman Dolidze v Kevin Holland
Ketlen Vieira v Kayla Harrison
READ MORE
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