UFC 306 BETTING TIPS
*Times listed are all estimated GMT start time
04:15: Brian Ortega v Diego Lopes – Diego Lopes to win
04:45: Alexa Grasso v Valentina Shevchenko – Valentina Shevchenko to win
05:30: Sean O’Malley v Merab Dvalishvili – Merab Dvalishvili to win by Points
- A treble with these selections pays at approximately 7/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.
UFC 306
The Sphere, Las Vegas
TV: TNT Sports
Overnight Saturday, September 14th – Sunday, September 15th
Brian Ortega v Diego Lopes – Diego Lopes to win
This fight was rescheduled from UFC 303 after Ortega was forced to withdraw after sickness stopped him from making weight. Lopes fought Dan Ige at short notice and got a close-fought decision win.
It’s important to note that although Lopes only has a handful of fights in the organisation, he’s got 31 professional MMA bouts on his résumé. Ortega may have more experience in the UFC, but Lopes is no newcomer. He’s actually the one with more professional MMA fights under his belt.
Ortega and Lopes are similar in that they both have high level jiu-jitsu but neither have a strong wrestling game to take the fight to the ground. Both have a weakness with defending themselves on the feet absorbing more punches than they land.
Ortega is a lot worse in this regard, absorbing 6.5 strikes per minute compared to Lopes’ 4.1. That’s going to be the difference for me. Ortega has been in some wars and taken a lot of punishment over his UFC career. It proves he’s as tough as they get but it also proves he’s susceptible to taking a beating.
I picked Lopes to win the first time this was scheduled and I’m picking him again. Lopes to win.
Alexa Grasso v Valentina Shevchenko – Valentina Shevchenko to win
I’ve studied what the experts are saying about this fight, and a lot of people in the know, like Alexa Grasso, to win the trilogy.
Their first fight was going Valentina’s way landing more strikes and takedowns before Grasso won thanks to a rear naked choke late in the 4th round. In the second fight, it was very close and was given a split decision draw.
Outside of these past two fights with Grasso, Shevchenko has defended the title since 2018 and only lost two fights in the past 10 years, both of which were against the female GOAT, Amanda Nunes.
Shevchenko for me is still the better grappler and the better striker. I think she’ll clarify why she reigned in the flyweight division for so long.
As I said, the experts are picking Grasso. I also saw a fan poll favouring Shevchenko. If it wasn’t already clear that I’m no expert, this might be a sign. I’m going with The Bullet. Shevchenko to win.
Sean O’Malley v Merab Dvalishvili – Merab Dvalishvili to win by points
All week, I’ve been swaying back and forth between picking Merab by points and picking the Suga Show by KO/TKO. I’ve finally locking in Merab by points. I think we’re getting a good price, considering winning by decision is his only realistic way to win. He’s not knocking O’Malley out and he hasn’t submitted anyone in the UFC.
Why I like Merab to get the unanimous decision: He’s called the Machine for a reason. He’s got incredible cardio, and he’s relentless with pressure and takedowns. In Merab’s last fight, he landed five takedowns on Cejudo, an Olympic Freestyle Wrestling gold medallist.
The fight before that, he landed 11 takedowns on Petr Yan. And Petr Yan actually landed six takedowns on O’Malley in his split decision defeat to the Suga Show. Wrestling math indicates Merab shouldn’t have trouble repeatedly taking O’Malley down for five rounds.
Where Merab is weak is his ability to finish a fight. For all of his dominance, he’s not able to put his opponents away. He doesn’t have knockout power, a brutal ground-and-pound game or a big submission threat. He just attacks his takedowns again and again and again. That’s his strategy, and it works. Nine of Merab’s last 10 wins have come by unanimous decision. There’s no fear of Merab winning any other way in my opinion.
O’Malley, on the other hand, is very dangerous. He put an absolute mauling on Chito Vera in his last outing. Before that, he put Aljo away with a counter right hand a lá Conor v Aldo. O’Malley averages almost twice as many significant strikes per minute compared to Merab. And considering Merab’s gameplan is to win after 25 minutes, that’s a lot of time for O’Malley to land some really significant shots.
It’s a close one, and I don’t mind O’Malley by KO/TKO. But I’m picking the Georgian Machine by points.
UFC 306 TIPS
*Times listed are all estimated GMT start time
04:15 Brian Ortega v Diego Lopes – Diego Lopes to win
04:45 Alexa Grasso v Valentina Shevchenko – Valentina Shevchenko to win
05:30 Sean O’Malley v Merab Dvalishvili – Merab Dvalishvili to win by Points
- A treble with these selections pays at approximately 7/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.
READ MORE
- Grapple with our best UFC news and betting tips at Paddy Power News
- UFC 306 Preview: Why ‘Mexico night’ will be like nothing ever seen before in Las Vegas
- UFC 306 Tips: Five undercard fights to follow at ‘Noche UFC’
- Alexa Grasso v Valentina Shevchenko betting: Who has the edge in Noche UFC trilogy clash?
- Sean O’Malley v Merab Dvalishvili betting: Who will leave Noche UFC as bantamweight king?
The Paddy Power Guide To Safer Gambling – Everything You Need To Know
