UFC 306 promises to deliver a feast of fights on a spectacular night at the Sphere in Las Vegas, and the two men at the top of the card head to the state-of-the-art venue hoping to leave with championship gold wrapped around their waist.
Sean O’Malley is one of the new superstars of the UFC. The American earned his spot in the UFC with an impressive win on Dana White’s Contender Series, and has gone on to capture the imagination of fight fans as he’s worked his way towards the top of the 135-pound division. Now he is the defending champion, he’s the man with the target on his back.
Looking to dethrone him is Georgia’s Merab Dvalishvili, a relentless wrestler with a bottomless gas tank and the ability to take down any fighter on the planet. Dvalishvili has been there or thereabouts in the bantamweight division for years, but was happy not to challenge for the title all the while his friend and training partner Aljamain Sterling was the champion. But, after O’Malley knocked out Sterling to win the belt, Dvalishvilii set his sights on the gold.
UFC 306
The Sphere, Las Vegas
TV: TNT Sports
Overnight Saturday/Sunday September 14-15
Sean O’Malley v Merab Dvalishvili
O’Malley has lost just once in his mixed martial arts career, and it’s a defeat he refuses to count on his record.
His loss to Marlon Vera at UFC 252 resulted from him rolling his ankle multiple times during the fight, which left him open to being taken down. Vera finished the fight with ground and pound.
O’Malley said his decision to loosen his ankle strapping pre-fight was the cause, and with him viewing the defeat as self-inflicted, he still believes that he hasn’t been “beaten” in a fight. To this day, when Bruce Buffer announces him as having one loss, he signals a zero to the camera with his fingers.
That defeat aside, O’Malley has been close to perfect. Since that loss, he has won six and had one no-contest due to an accidental eye poke against Pedro Munhoz. Of those six wins, four have come via knockout or TKO.
Dvalishvili, meanwhile, has been stacking wins in the Octagon since 2018. He lost his first two fights in the UFC as he adapted to life on the big stage. But since then, he’s been perfect. Ten fights and 10 wins have propelled him to the top of the division. And with his last three victories coming against former UFC world champions Jose Aldo, Petr Yan, and Henry Cejudo, there’s no questioning Dvalishvili’s form or credibility as a legitimate title threat heading into this weekend’s clash.
The big question now is whether Merab can add the name of a fourth UFC champion to his list of victims.
Keys To Victory
In this modern era of mixed martial arts, where fighters train across all facets of combat sport, it’s pretty rare to see such a stark contrast in styles in a world title fight. But, despite both men having solid skills across the full gamut of MMA disciplines, this one really does come down to a simple equation: Can a wrestler beat a striker?
O’Malley’s MO is simple, get in, get the knockout, and get out, ideally without being touched. His ability to manage range and dish out punishment without shipping too much of his own has meant that he has avoided too many Octagon wars so far in his career.
His approach this weekend will be no different, as he looks to keep it standing and sting Dvalishvili on the way in with sharp, powerful punches. Then, when he stuns his man, he’ll look to stay composed, pick his shots and force the stoppage.
It’s the exact tactic he employed to dethrone Dvalishvili’s teammate Sterling at UFC 292 in August last year. Sterling knew his best chance of victory was on the mat, but O’Malley’s sharp footwork and striking accuracy meant that he stifled the then-champion’s weapons at source, and knocked him out before he could barely lay a glove on him for a takedown.
Dvalishvili will also be looking for the takedown, but his approach is far more in your face than Sterling. While the former champion looked to work openings for takedowns, Dvalishvili’s approach is to just bulldoze his way in and get the fight to the ground by any means necessary. It’s a tactic that could play into O’Malley’s hands, as he’s likely to get clipped on the way in. But when he gets to O’Malley’s legs, he’s almost certain to take the taller, lankier fighter down to the canvas.
The problem here is, for all of Dvalishvili’s wrestling pedigree, he typically doesn’t finish fights. In his 21-fight MMA career he’s won just four of his 17 wins inside the distance, with the majority of his bouts going to the scorecards.
That means that he’s likely to have to wrestle, and wrestle hard, for five full rounds. And, with every round starting standing up, that’s five clear opportunities for O’Malley to land his striking.
If Dvalishvili can get takedowns early in the rounds and keep the fight on the mat, the win is there for the taking. But if O’Malley can keep it standing for as long as possible and rack up enough points with his punches, he can nullify Dvalishvili’s ground dominance. And, if he can mount up the damage, or catch him clean, O’Malley also has the route to a knockout win open to him, as well.
#WHATODDSPADDY
O’Malley v Dvalishvili should serve up a classic striker versus grappler matchup. O’Malley could weather some early takedowns, assess Dvalishvili’s takedown timing, then punish him in the middle rounds. But, if O’Malley can’t stop the takedown and the fight goes Dvalishvili’s way, it could turn into a one-way wrestlefest.
There are a host of markets available to bet on the fight, including Method of Victory, Round Betting, Method & Round Combos, Total Rounds and more.
But if you want to dive a little deeper and give yourself exactly the bet you want, you can build your own bet and ask Paddy to give you the odds.
With #WhatOddsPaddy, you have the chance to build your own bet. Here’s a couple of options you might want to consider:
Sean O’Malley to win in Rounds 1, 2, or 3
Merab Dvalishvili to land 3+ takedowns and Sean O’Malley to win by KO/TKO
Merab Dvalishvili to land 5+ takedowns and win by points
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