UFC 306 is all set to put on a show in Las Vegas on Mexican Independence Day weekend, and the promotion’s Mexican world champion plans on claiming the biggest win of her career.
Undisputed women’s flyweight champion Alexa Grasso heads into fight night at the spectacular Sphere knowing that she can give the Mexican fight fans a dream result by turning back the challenge of the woman she defeated to win the belt.
Valentina Shevchenko is the greatest flyweight champion in the division’s short history, having held the belt for four and a half years. “Bullet” captured the title with a win over former strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk, and defended it seven times, defeating Jessica Eye, Liz Carmouche, Katlyn Cerminara (nee Chookagian), Jennifer Maia, Jessica Andrade, Lauren Murphy and Taila Santos.
Heading into 2023, it looked like Shevchenko was close to cleaning out the entire women’s flyweight division, but Grasso had other ideas. At UFC 285, Grasso outstruck Shevchenko on the feet, then finished the long-reigning champion with a fourth-round rear-naked choke to capture the title and become the first Mexican woman to win UFC gold.
An immediate rematch followed at Noche UFC last September, and Grasso retained her title after the bout was scored as a split draw. The outcome of the second fight meant that a trilogy fight seemed inevitable, and the pair will throw down for a third time in the co-main event of UFC 306/Noche UFC next weekend in Sin City.
UFC 306
The Sphere, Las Vegas
TV: TNT Sports
Overnight Saturday/Sunday September 14-15
THE FORM GUIDE
ALEXA GRASSO TO WIN
Grasso is riding a six-fight unbeaten streak, with five wins taking her to the top of the division, and that split draw keeping her there… just!
Prior to her submission finish of Shevchenko, her run in the UFC has consisted largely of decision wins. In fact, she’s only claimed two inside-the-distance wins in the Otagon, and one of them came against then-champion Shevchenko.
VALENTINA SHEVCHENKO TO WIN
Shevchenko was the gold standard at 125 pounds for years, and her loss to Grasso at UFC 285 is her only UFC defeat in the flyweight class. Her bounceback performance against Grasso ended in a draw, as she came agonisingly close to winning back her title only to be cruelly denied on the scorecards.
Now she has the chance to win her title back, and she’ll have to pick up her first win since June 2022 to do it.
KEYS TO VICTORY
The two bouts between the pair have showed how well matched they are, but both have clearly-defined paths to victory. It’ll all come down to who can take the fight down their particular route.
For Grasso to retain, she needs to lean on her boxing skills. While Shevchenko is a superb striker herself, Grasso held the edge in the boxing exchanges and, if she can keep the fight standing and check Shevchenko’s leg kicks, she has the boxing ability to outpoint “Bullet” over the five round duration. She may even walk Shevchenko onto something give herself the chance to finish the fight on the mat, but a decision win built off her boxing prowess looks the best route to success.
Shevchenko, meanwhile, needs to make this a true mixed martial arts fight. That means keeping Grasso guessing with a strong leg kick attack and smart counter boxing on the feet, but crucially, it also means effective, well-timed use of her wrestling to get the fight to the mat. If Shevchenko can counter smartly and invest in leg kicks on the feet, and dominate the exchanges on the mat, she has the ability to either take the fight on the cards, or maybe even find a finish on the ground.
#WHATODDSPADDY
This fight is incredibly close to call, as you can see from the fight odds above. It’s a virtual coin flip. But there are other ways to spice up fight night than simply trying to pick a winner at short odds.
With #WhatOddsPaddy, you have the chance to build your own bet. Here’s a couple of options you might want to consider:
Valentina Shevchenko to land 5+ takedowns
Valentina Shevchenko to land 5+ takedowns and win by decision
Shevchenko is one of the most cerebral fighters in the UFC and, after spending almost 45 minutes in the Octagon with Grasso, there’s a good chance she’ll have sharpened up the perfect gameplan to dethrone the Mexican and reclaim her old title. And, as I suggested above, that gameplan is almost certain to involve wrestling – a lot of it.
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