UFC 304 BETTING TIPS
*Times listed are all estimated GMT start time on Sunday, July 28th.
4:15am – Bobby Green v Paddy Pimblett – Bobby Green to Win
4:45am – Tom Aspinall v Curtis Blaydes – Tom Aspinall by KO/TKO
5:15am – Leon Edwards v Belal Muhammad – Belal Muhammad to Win by Points
- A treble with these selections pays at approximately 11/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.
UFC 304
Co-op Live Arena Manchester
TV: TNT Sports
Overnight Saturday, July 27- Sunday July 28
Bobby Green v Paddy Pimblett
Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett, the Liverpudlian, is a divisive character. When you’re as confident as Paddy, you have to be able to back it up. So far, the scouser has five wins from five in the UFC. But there are question marks over how far he can go as he’s starting to struggle with tougher opposition. I’m unsure if he has the skills to match his stardom.
King Green may have a new first name, but he has no fresh face. He has spent 12 years in the UFC and has almost 50 professional MMA fights. He has his fair share of losses, but statistically, there’s still a lot to like. ‘Striking differential’ is the difference between the average amount of significant strikes a fighter lands and absorbs per minute. Bobby Green, eh, I mean King Green, lands a very impressive 6.45 strikes per minute and absorbs just 3. 75 per minute. Green has put on some striking masterclasses in the octagon, often landing two to three times as many strikes as he absorbs.
Pimblett has looked vulnerable on the feet at times. I’m going with the fighter formerly known as Bobby to win.
Tom Aspinall v Curtis Blaydes – Tom Aspinall by KO/TKO
I’m very bullish on Tom Aspinall. It’s hard not to be. He’s blown past everyone he’s faced within a few minutes except for his first fight with Curtis Blaydes, where he suffered a freak injury in the opening seconds.
Five of his seven UFC wins have come inside two minutes of fighting. He’s only seen the 2nd round once in the UFC. It’s unbelievable how easily he’s dispatched some of the best heavyweights in the division. With all of that success, I knew Aspinall would be a short-price favourite, but I’m pleasantly surprised with the Aspinall by KO/TKO or DQ price (at the time of writing!)
Aspinall does have submissions in his arsenal, with two wins by rear naked choke. His dad was one of the first British BJJ Black Belts in the country, after all. It’s something that could sting us but I think he’s still more inclined to do ground and pound over attacking a submission.
Leon Edwards v Belal Muhammad – Belal Muhammad to Win by Points
We’ll start with the the challenger first. Belal Muhammad may not be the flashiest fighter, but what he does works. He’s got a style that wins round after round against the best fighters in the world. He sets a high pace, and he’s got a wrestling style, and he likes to use both to pin his opponent against the cage. I could see him winning with another no-frills but very impressive performance that he’s known for.
Rocky Edwards was the most underrated fighter in the division for years. He was once in Belal’s shoes, getting snubbed for title shots. He proved he’s the best in the Welterweight division after two consecutive wins over Kamaru Usman and a title defence against Colby Covington.
One thing I am confident about is this fight has a great chance of reaching the final bell. Belal has 12 decisions in his last 14 fights. When other fighters assert that they will knock their opponent out, Belal says he’ll win by decision. There are memes about it. Edwards is not much better for early stoppages. He has some final round finishes, notably the “pound-for-pound headshot dead” head kick against Usman to win the belt.
Other than that, Edwards is largely a decision merchant, I’m afraid to say. On average, Edwards lands and absorbs just over two strikes per minute, which doesn’t make for exhilarating matches. I could see Belal’s wrestling being the difference in the judges’ eyes.
As of writing, you get EVS for an Edwards decision but there’s better value in Belal’s odds. I’ll take Belal by decision.
UFC BETTING TIPS
*Times listed are all estimated GMT start time on Sunday, July 28th.
4:15am – Bobby Green v Paddy Pimblett – Bobby Green to Win
4:45am – Tom Aspinall v Curtis Blaydes – Tom Aspinall by KO/TKO
5:15am – Leon Edwards v Belal Muhammad – Belal Muhammad to Win by Points
- A treble with these selections pays at approximately 11/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.
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