UFC BETTING TIPS
*Times listed are all estimated GMT start time on Sunday, June 30
3:15am Ian Garry v Michael Page – Ian Garry to win
4:45am Brian Ortega v Diego Lopes – Diego Lopes to win
5:15am Alex Pereira v Jiri Prochazka – Alex Pereira to win by KO/TKO
- A treble with these selections pays at approximately 5/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.
UFC 303
T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
TV: TNT Sports
Overnight Saturday June 29-Sunday June 30
It’s UFC 303! Disappointing to lose that McGregor v Chandler fight but we’ve still got a strong card considering. We’ve got a little treble here made up from the three most interesting fights on the card in my opinion. Let me talk you through it:
Ian Garry v Michael Page – Ian Garry to win
Two striking specialists makes for a fascinating match up. You might not like Ian Garry, you might find him a little annoying, a little cringe at times. Guilty of trying to act like Conor for sure. But don’t let that distract you from the fact he’s one of the biggest talents in the UFC right now. He’s undefeated with a 14-0-0 record and made light work of most of the opponents he’s faced so far.
Michael Page impressed against Kevin Holland on his UFC debut. Still, he’s 37 years old, 11 years older than Garry and has never won a belt in his 19-fight career in Bellator. I think never becoming a Bellator champion caps his skill level. If he can’t become a champion in Bellator he surely would struggle against the UFC’s top ranked guys. We still don’t know how great Garry is. His ceiling is a lot higher and for that simple reason, I fancy him for the win.
Brian Ortega v Diego Lopes – Diego Lopes to win
We have two Jiu Jitsu specialists here that would both feel a lot more comfortable if this fight hits the deck. Both of these guys get hit a lot more than they dish out so I imagine their game plans will include getting the fight to the canvas if they’re not getting the best of it on their feet.
If it does go to the ground, Brian Ortega is very dangerous. He has a several submission victories in fights that he was losing on his feet. And he almost snatched the belt with a tight guillotine against Volk. We can’t count Ortega out at any point in this fight. But Diego Lopes also fancies himself as a submission expert, averaging 5 submission attempts per 15 minutes in the octagon, compared to Ortega’s 1.2 attempts.
Lopes is coming off three 1st round wins in a row – 2 by KO/TKO and 1 by submission. Ortega isn’t in good form, losing 3 of his last 5 fights, but he has been fighting a much higher calibre of fighter – Yair Rodriquez, Alex Volkanovski and Max Holloway to name a few.
I’m going with the in-form guy. There’s a lot of hype around Lopes. I’ll get on the hype train.
Alex Pereira v Jiri Prochazka – Alex Pereira to win by KO/TKO
When I’m looking at striking stats for these fighters, one very obvious trend I see across the UFC roster is that elite fighters all land more strikes than they take. There are plenty of ranked fighters proving you can actually get pretty far trading one for one but champions always have the ability to protect themselves while landing blows.
Alex Pereira is a prime example of this, landing 5.1 strikes per minute while absorbing just 3.5 strikes. It may not seem like a big difference, but over a 25 minute fight, it adds up. Jiri Prochazka does not have this technical quality to his game. He lands and absorbs around 5.5 strikes per minute on average. He’s easier to hit, will take more damage, and is more susceptible to getting knocked out.
Jiri was knocked out by Pereira less than a year ago at UFC 295. We correctly tipped that by the way and I can’t see this rematch going differently.
Prochazka claims Pereira uses a shaman from his tribe in Brazil which gives him supernatural powers. I don’t know if there are rituals going on, but if Pereira has a shaman potentially giving him spiritual PEDs, that only makes me more confident in this pick.
Pereira to win by KO/TKO.
UFC BETTING TIPS
*Times listed are all estimated GMT start time
3:15am Ian Garry v Michael Page – Ian Garry to win
4:45am Brian Ortega v Diego Lopes – Diego Lopes to win
5:15am Alex Pereira v Jiri Prochazka – Alex Pereira to win by KO/TKO
- A treble with these selections pays at approximately 5/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.
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