UFC Tips: Our 4 best bets for UFC 302 make a 5/1 Acca

UFC tipster Aaron Nolan predicts a Islam Makhachev win in the Main Event.

UFC BETTING TIPS

*Times listed are all estimated GMT start time on Sunday, June 2 

2:30am Cesar Almeida v Roman Kopylov – Cesar Almeida to Win
4:15am Jailton Almeida v Alexander Romanov – Jailton Almeida to Win
4:45am Sean Strickland v Paulo Costa –#WOP Sean Strickland to Win & Round 2 to Start
5:15am Islam Makhachev v Dustin Poirier – #WOP Islam Makhachev to Win & Round 2 to Start

UFC 302
Prudential Center, New Jersey
TV: TNT Sports
Overnight Saturday June 1-Sunday June 2

Cesar Almeida v Roman Kopylov – Cesar Almeida to Win

Cesar Almeida is undefeated with a 5-0-0 record. Kopylov has lost three of his six fights in the UFC. Almeida has impressive striking stats landing 4.5 significant strikers per minute and only absorbing 1.3 strikes. While the Russian’s defence is a lot more porous absorbing over 4 strikes per minute on average.

Jailton Almeida v Alexandr Romanov  – Jailton Almeida to Win

Jailton Almeida had a hiccup in his last outing getting knocked out by Curtis Blaydes in the 2nd round. He somehow had nine takedowns before that KO. He was on seven wins from seven in the UFC before running into Blaydes and had looked like a top prospect.

Almeida is known for his takedowns averaging an overwhelming 6.88 takedowns per 15 minutes. Alexandr Romanov only successfully defends 20% of takedown attempts. I think the Brazilian will get to freely run his gameplan here getting takedowns, maintaining top control and attacking submissions.

Sean Strickland v Paulo Costa – #WOP Sean Strickland to Win & Round 2 to Start

Strickland put on one of the great title contender performances in UFC history to dethrone Adesanya last year. His first title defence was less inspired losing by split decision to Dricus Du Plessis.

Paulo Costa has three losses in his last four fights. He was so far off making weight against Vettori, they changed the agreed weight multiple times on fight week eventually going all the way up to light heavyweight. His nickname is The Eraser but hasn’t had a knockout since 2018.

Paulo Costa’s washed. He’s fairy Non-Bio. I’m backing the #WhatOddsPaddy selection Strickland to Win and Round 2 to start.

Islam Makhachev v Dustin Poirier – #WOP Islam Makhachev to Win & Round 2 to Start

Islam is a huge favourite and for good reason. We could get into why he’s so fancied but I don’t think its necessary. Islam to win is too short for me to back for this acca but I like the same #WhatOddsPaddy market as my co-main event pick, Islam Makhachev to win and Round 2 to start which is 8/13 at the time of writing.

It’s been eight years since Poirier last lost in the 1st round. He’s a tough competitor and I think he can hold his own for at least a round.

It’s worth mentioning that five-round fights can sometimes start slow as both fighters have to pace themselves for potentially a much longer fight.

Islam absolutely has it in him to get in there and take Poirier out inside 5 minutes, he’s done it to Volk, Bobby Green and Dan Hooker. But he’s had to go beyond the first round in 9 of his 14 UFC wins. People you’ve never heard of have made it to a decision against Islam.

UFC BETTING TIPS

*Times listed are all estimated GMT start time

2:30am Cesar Almeida v Roman Kopylov – Cesar Almeida to Win
4:15am Jailton Almeida v Alexander Romanov – Jailton Almeida to Win
4:45am Sean Strickland v Paulo Costa –#WOP Sean Strickland to Win & Round 2 to Start
5:15am Islam Makhachev v Dustin Poirier – #WOP Islam Makhachev to Win & Round 2 to Start

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