UFC 301 BETTING TIPS
*Times listed are all estimated GMT start time
3:15am Paul Craig v Caio Borralho – Caio Borralho to Win by Points
4:15am Anthony Smith v Vitor Petrino – Vitor Petrino to Win by Points
4:45am Jonathan Martinez v Jose Aldo – Jose Aldo to Win by Points
5:15am Alexandre Pantoja v Steve Erceg – Alexandre Pantoja to Win by Points
- A four fold with these selections pays at approximately 90/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.
UFC 301
Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
TV: TNT Sports
UFC 301 is here and yes, the card is a far cry from what we got for UFC 300 but this 90/1 shout may make things a bit more interesting. Believe me, it wasn’t my intention to spam the win by points market for UFC 301 but look, that’s just where the stats & value brought me.
Paul Craig v Caio Borralho – Caio Borralho to win by Points
I like Caio Borralho here. He has seven wins from seven since joining the UFC. Paul Craig has three losses in his last four fights. I’m reluctant to say boring but Borralho’s fights do tend to be a little uneventful. He has five wins by judges’ decision with his fights usually having very few strikes landed, a couple takedowns and no submission attempts.
We’d love another dull fight on Saturday night, I’m backing Caio Borralho to win by points.
Anthony Smith v Vitor Petrino – Vitor Petrino to Win by Points
Unbelievably, Anthony Smith has had almost 60 professional MMA fights in his career, all of that damage has to be hindering him at this stage. Similar to Paul Craig, he’s also had three losses in his last four fights. Lionheart has been fighting and often beating the top guys in the UFC for a decade now but I think this version of Anthony Smith is a shadow of his former self.
Vitor Petrino is underrated. He has an 11-0-0 record. I also like that he takes a lot less damage than Anthony Smith. Petrino absorbs about half as many strikes per minute on average. Petrino is much better at getting takedowns too with an average of 3.9 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to 0.5 takedowns per 15 minutes for Smith. Smith has a much weaker takedown defence too only defending 50% of takedown attempts.
Petrino is the better fighter at this stage in their careers. But Lionheart is appropriately named I think he’ll be able to stay in the fight until the final bell. Petrino to win by Points.
Jonathan Martinez v Jose Aldo – Jose Also to Win by Points
Short and sweet, Jose Aldo as an underdog is too good to pass up for me. Aldo has some losses but only against the very best fighters in the world. Jonathan Martinez doesn’t fit that criterion yet at least.
Aldo is a great striker and he’s got those chopping leg kicks. I think he’ll be hacking away at Martinez’s legs for 15 minutes. Aldo to win by points.
Alexandre Pantoja v Steve Erceg – Alexandre Pantoja to Win
This title fight might have come a bit too soon for Steve Erceg. He’s only had 3 UFC fights and hasn’t beaten any of the big names in the division. He may be a future champion but not at UFC 301. Pantoja is the UFC veteran with 14 fights in the organisation, he’s got a title defence now and I think the difference in experience and confidence will be evident on Saturday night especially in front of Pantoja’s home crowd in Rio de Janeiro.
Pantoja got a whopping 14 takedowns in his last two fights. He’s clearly identified takedowns & ground control as his path to victory. Erceg is most likely to cause an upset on the feet so I think Pantoja will be shooting for takedowns for 5 rounds until getting his hand raised. Alexandre Pantoja to win by points.
UFC 301 BETTING TIPS
*Times listed are all estimated GMT start time
3:15am Paul Craig v Caio Borralho – Caio Borralho to Win by Points
4:15am Anthony Smith v Vitor Petrino – Vitor Petrino to Win by Points
4:45am Jonathan Martinez v Jose Aldo – Jose Aldo to Win by Points
5:15am Alexandre Pantoja v Steve Erceg – Alexandre Pantoja to Win by Points
- A four fold with these selections pays at approximately 90/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.
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