UFC Tips: Our Three Best Bets for UFC 297 with a 16/1 Treble

Our tipster Aaron Nolan reckons he's found a trio of knockout picks for Saturday night's fighting in Canada.

Dricus Du Plessis, january 2024

UFC 297 Betting Tips

Saturday night/Sunday morning

3:15am Arnold Allen v Movsar Evloev – Movsar Evloev to win by Decision/Technical Decision
4:45am Raquel Pennington vs Mayra Beuno Silva – Mayra Beuno Silva to win by Submission
5:15am Sean Strickland v Dricus Du Plessis – Dricus Du Plessis to win by KO

UFC 297
Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Canada
TV: TNT Sports

3:15am Arnold Allen v Movsar Evloev – Movsar Evloev to win by Decision/Technical Decision

Last year, Arnold Allen had his winning streak of 10 wins in a row come to a halt when he faced Max Halloway, one of the best featherweights of all time who proved to be too much for the Englishman on the night losing a unanimous decision.

Movsar Evloev is undefeated over his entire MMA career with a 17-0-0 record. But he doesn’t have any notable wins over top-ranked opponents. He also hasn’t won a fight emphatically in the UFC yet with all seven of his victories in the organisation going the distance.
Evloev, like many Russian fighters in the UFC, has a takedown-oriented game.

Over his last three fights, he amassed a whopping 22 successful takedowns over his opponents. But he hasn’t displayed anything like the clinical, punishing ground game of a Khabib or Islam since his opponents were able to stand back up time and again eventually making it to the final bell.

I would like to see Arnold win here but I can’t pick him. We’ve seen high-level Russian wrestling dominate in the octagon in recent years.

It’s hard to bet against it. I think Movsar Evloev will get his hand raised after Bruce Buffer reads out the judges’ scorecards. Movsar Evloev to win by Decision/Technical Decision.

4:45am Raquel Pennington vs Mayra Beuno Silva – Mayra Beuno Silva to win by Submission

Raquel Pennington is an ex-champion, she’s coming off five wins in a row but I think a submission win for Mayra Beuno Silve is a good price.

Mayra Beuno Silva is a jiu jitsu specialist. Seven of her 10 wins have come by submission. She has won with a variety of different types of chokes, she has 2 wins by armbar and her last victory came by kneebar. She has a lot of high-level submissions she can finish this fight with.

Raquel Pennington struggles to stop her opponents with eight of her last nine wins going the distance. 25 minutes is a lot of time to be locked in a cage with someone as sharp with her submissions as Maya Beuno Silva.

It’s the Brazilian’s only real way to win the belt. I’ll take Mayra Beuno Silva to Win by Submission.

Sean Strickland, UFC, September 2023

5:15am Sean Strickland v Dricus Du Plessis – Dricus Du Plessis to win by KO

Sean Strickland makes his first title defence against the dangerous South African Dricus Du Plessis. It’s a pick ‘em fight with the champion coming in as the slight favourite at the time of writing.

I believe Strickland is the more technical fighter. His striking proficiency was demonstrated in his dominant win over striking specialist Israel Adesanya last year. His success rate with takedown attempts is higher than Du Plessis’s. He has a much stronger takedown defence too.

But I think Dricus Du Plessis can overcome a technical gap with sheer power and aggression.

‘Stillknocks’ has knockout power. Du Plessis has 4 knockouts in his last six fights. While Strickland only has one win by KO in his last eight. I think the South African won’t be too concerned with his opponent’s power allowing him to take risks to find Strickland’s chin.
Du Plessis likes to throw a lot of punches and he tends to land a lot of them. Du Plessis lands 6.95 strikes per minute to Strickland’s 5.82. Strickland is hard to hit we know that from his last fight but I think over 25 minutes, Strickland won’t be able to avoid every devastating shot thrown at him.

I can see the belt changing hands via a KO. I’m picking Dricus Du Plessis to win by KO/TKO.

UFC Betting Tips

Saturday night/Sunday morning

Arnold Allen v Movsar Evloev – Movsar Evloev to win by Decision/Technical Decision
Raquel Pennington vs Mayra Beuno Silva – Mayra Beuno Silva to win by Submission
Sean Strickland v Dricus Du Plessis – Dricus Du Plessis to win by KO

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What do you think?