UFC 292 Betting Tips
4:35am – Neil Magny vs Ian Machado Garry – Ian Machado Garry to win by KO/TKO
5:00am – Zhang Weili vs Amanda Lemos – Zhang Weili to win by KO/TKO
5:35am – Aljamain Sterling vs Sean O’Malley – Sean O’Malley to win
**Times listed are all estimated GMT start time
*A Treble on these selections adds up to around 13/1 with Paddy Power. TAP HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP INSTANTLY.
UFC 292 – TD Garden, Boston, USA
TV: TNT Sports 1
Neil Magny vs Ian Machado Garry – Ian Machado Garry to win by KO/TKO
Sunday, 4:35am
The Irishman has looked the real deal so far winning all 5 of his UFC fights to date. He has 3 KO/TKOs in the UFC, 2 of which came in the 1st round. After the most recent first round head kick KO, Ian Garry will be coming into this fight with even more confidence.
Neil Magny is his toughest challenge yet. He has the most wins in the Welterweight division – 21. He’s beaten several UFC World Champions over the years such as Carlos Condit, Robbie Lawlor and Johny Hendricks.
Been beaten 11 times too though. And even when he wins, its usually on points with 14 of his 21 wins coming by split or unanimous decision. Ian Garry can’t be too worried about Magny’s game.
Ian Garry has displayed how high level his striking is. He lands almost twice as many strikes as Magny per minute. He has a big advantage on the feet and he should be able to knock Magny out before the 15 minutes are up. Ian Machado Garry to win by KO/TKO.
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Zhang Weili vs Amanda Lemos – Zhang Weili to win by KO/TKO
Sunday, 5:00am
Zhang Weili is the short price favourite and for good reason. She is a former UFC Champion beating everyone she’s faced in the UFC not named Rose Namajunas. She has dominated in many of her fights and I think she can do that again here.
In the UFC, Lemos has landed 4.5 strikes per minute on average and absorbed 4 strikes per minute. Not a very profitable exchange for the Brazilain. While Zhang lands almost 50% more strikes and she absorbs.
Zhang also leads in takedowns getting 2 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to Lemos’ 1.1 takedowns
Zhang Weili looks good to win. She has 2 KO’s in her last 4 wins. I’m picking Zhang Weili to win by KO/TKO.
Aljamain Sterling vs Sean O’Malley – Sean O’Malley to win
Sunday, 5:35am
Sean O’Malley is a good bet to get the upset and win the Bantamweight Championship belt.
Starting with Aljamain Sterling, he has beaten the toughest guys in the division – Sandhagen, Yan twice, Dillashaw and most recently Cejudo. But 2 of those wins were by Split Decision. He has the infamous DQ win over Yan. Dillashaw went into his fight with a shoulder injury and the shoulder dislocated in the 1st round. I really rate Aljo but I’m not convinced that he deserves to be a big favourite.
Sugar Sean doesn’t have a comparable resumé. The self-proclaimed ‘unranked champ’ jumped all the way up to No. 2 in the rankings after beating Petr Yan (admittedly also by split decision). He’s skipped the line mostly because Aljamain doesn’t have anyone left to fight.
So the following stats are going to be a little misleading since O’Malley hasn’t had to face the level of opposition Sterling has.
Sean O’Malley lands a very impressive 7.4 strikes per minute. While Sterling lands significantly less – 4.8 per minute. And it’s not just volume, Sean O’Malley’s punches knock people spark out. He has 5 finishes in the UFC by knockout. Before Aljo defeated effectively a one-armed Dillashaw, he hadn’t had a knockout since 2014. Sterling won’t be a big threat on the feet. But O’Malley will be very dangerous here.
The Funkmaster hasn’t been devastating to his opponents when he gets the fight into his domain either. He’s a grappling heavy fighter favouring control over inflicting damage. He rarely attacks submissions with just 0.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes. It’s not like O’Malley is toast if he gets dragged to the canvas. He can probably get taken down multiple times in this fight and still win.
I like the value in Sean O’Malley. I’m picking the Suga Show!
UFC 292 Betting Tips
4:35am – Neil Magny vs Ian Machado Garry – Ian Machado Garry to win by KO/TKO
5:00am – Zhang Weili vs Amanda Lemos – Zhang Weili to win by KO/TKO
5:35am – Aljamain Sterling vs Sean O’Malley – Sean O’Malley to win
*A Treble on these selections adds up to around 13/1 with Paddy Power. TAP HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP INSTANTLY.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
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