UFC 289 Betting Tips
4:05am Mike Malott v Adam Fugitt – Mike Malott to win by KO/TKO or Submission
4:30am Charles Oliveira v Beneil Dariush – Beneil Dariush to win by Points
5:00am Amanda Nunes v Irene Aldana – Amanda Nunes to win by Points
*A Treble on these selections adds up to around 28/1 with Paddy Power. TAP HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP INSTANTLY.
UFC 289 – Vancouver, Canada
TV: BT Sport 1, BT Sport Box Office
Mike Mallott vs Adam Fugitt – Mike Malott to win by KO/TKO or Submission
Sunday, 4:05am
I’ll keep it brief for this fight. Mike Mallot has a 9-1-1 record. All nine of his wins are first round wins, four of which were knockouts and five came from a range of submissions. I think he’s a higher class of fighter than Adam Fugitt and has every chance of finishing the fight early. We’re going with the Double Chance market – Mike Malott to win by KO/TKO or Submission.
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Charles Oliveira vs Beneil Dariush – Beneil Dariush to win by Points
Sunday, 4:30am
Before the Islam fight, Oliveira had put together an 11-fight undefeated streak in the most stacked division in the UFC. At the tail end of that run, he got consecutive victories over Tony Ferguson, Michael Chandler, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje. And somehow, he goes in as an underdog against Benny Dariush. It’s disrespectful is what it is.
I can’t blame you if you’re backing a former UFC Champion who almost cleaned out the entire division at 6/5. But I really like Dariush for this fight.
I think Benny will do better work on the feet mainly due to being a good bit better defensively. Charles ‘Do Bronx’ absorbs 3.2 significant strikes per minute while Dariush absorbs 2.5. It’s not just about volume of strikes getting through. Oliveira in recent fights can’t seem to get through the first round without getting rocked or dropped. Not the most accomplished striker is Benny Dariush but I think he should find the target with his punches and can stay relatively safe doing it.
When Oliveira has got dropped, a lot of his opponents elected to let him get back up. He has the most submission wins in UFC history and they didn’t want that jiu jitsu smoke. Which was great for Charles Oliveira – it meant he got a few seconds to recoup before getting back to his feet where he would somehow turn the fight around. But Dariush won’t worry about Oliveira’s submission threat off his back too much. He’s a Jiu Jitsu World Champion himself and will be more than happy to take top position on the ground.
When it comes to wrestling, Charles Oliveira only successfully defends 55% of takedown attempts. Dariush should be able to score some takedowns which at the very least can win favour with the judges. Oliveira will have a tough time having success with his own takedown attempts. Dariush has an 80% takedown defence. I think that’s strong enough to discourage Oliveira from using a ton of energy in that area of the fight.
Overall, I like that Dariush is good in every department and can bring the fight anywhere. But I don’t think he’s got a skillset that has a great chance of finishing Oliveira. I like Dariush to win after three rounds. Dariush by Points.
Amanda Nunes vs Irene Aldana – Amanda Nunes to win by Points
Sunday, 5:00am
I have a lot less to say about this fight. Nunes is the GWOAT and really should beat Aldana. It was a big upset losing to Julianna Peña in 2021 but she avenged that loss last year. This PPV Main Event was booked as the trilogy fight but Peña pulled out after breaking her rib in training. Irene Aldana steps in with four wins in her last five.
Aldana is tough, durable and known to be a dangerous striker. She has a 14-6 record with her last four losses coming by decision. Two of which were split decisions. I think she can stay competitive in this fight as well but I’m not worried about Aldana winning too much.
Amanda Nunes is 35 now and has been winning by decision of late with three of her last four wins coming after 25 minutes in the octagon. With signs of the lioness slowing down a bit, I like Amanda Nunes to win by points again.
UFC 289 Betting Tips
Mike Malott v Adam Fugitt – Mike Malott to win by KO/TKO or Submission
Charles Oliveira v Beneil Dariush – Beneil Dariush to win by Points
Amanda Nunes v Irene Aldana – Amanda Nunes to win by Points
*A Treble on these selections adds up to around 28/1 with Paddy Power. TAP HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP INSTANTLY.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
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