UFC Tips
Sunday 4:45am: Paddy Pimblett v Jared Gordon – Pimblett to Win by Submission in Round 1
Sunday 3:45am: Darren Till v Dricus Du Plessis – Darren Till to Win
Sunday 3:45am: Bryce Mitchell v Ilia Topuria – Under 2.5 Rounds
Paddy Pimblett v Jared Gordon tips
PIMBLETT TO WIN BY SUBMISSION IN ROUND 1
Anyone who has read anything I’ve written on Paddy Pimblett will know I’m generally quite happy to take him on given the prices he tends to trade at. His closing prices in the UFC haven’t been too dissimilar to his closing prices in Cage Warriors where he would have been facing much lower-class opposition. That isn’t a slight on Cage Warriors, they’re amazing, it’s just the reality.
I’m not sure how much better Pimblett will get. Given how long he’s been around, I feel like we know an awful lot about his ceiling. His fights are chaotically entertaining. He fights with his chin in the air but has brilliant submission skills and neck attacks.
I have two thoughts around a bet for this fight. Pimblett is probably at his most dangerous early on when both fighters are dry (it’s much harder to lock in a submission when fighters are pumping sweat). If you’re backing him, I’d recommend going after Pimblett to Win in Round One by Submission.
If you’re staying up for the card, I’d also be interested in a live bet on Gordon depending on how he looks after round one. If he’s survived the Pimblett onslaught, then I’d be interested in a playing a big price in-play. Someone is going to beat Pimblett and I think they’ll be a very backable price when it happens.
Darren Till v Dricus Du Plessis tips
TILL TO WIN
I feel like I might be making a mistake here given what we’ve seen from Till of late, but at the price I’m willing to take one more chance on him. I feel like he has the striking ability be competitive at the top of that middleweight division. He just doesn’t do enough.
Watching him, it’s like he sometimes gets caught up with too much feinting and not enough striking.
Feinting won’t win you minutes or rounds. It’s an aid so you can set up shots that do win you minutes and rounds. Of course, he’s had his injury issues of late and he does seem to have a brittle body. There are concerns there and his takedown defence would be another one so it will be interesting to see how the prolonged period of training with noted wrestler Khamzat Chimaev will serve him.
This is a step up in class for Du Plessis so at odds-on, the onus is on him to prove he can operate at this level. At a price that short, I think he’s very opposable.
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Bryce Mitchell v Ilia Topuria tips
UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS
This is such an interesting fight and it’s so hard to come down on a side. Topuria has been something of a wrecking ball since joining the UFC, going 4-0 with three KO’s. He’s a quick starter and will be looking to get Mitchell out of there early. There is a question around his cardio and how he looks late on.
We know Mitchell is very capable of going the full distance and the question will be can he weather that early storm and if so, what can he do late on?
I’ve gone for Under 2.5 Rounds thinking that it can cover a couple of outcomes. If Topuria can find the early finish, then it’s a win.
I think Mitchell is enough of a defensive liability that this is possible. If Mitchell can find a submission, then it’s a win. If Topuria can’t find the early finish and fades lades then potentially Mitchell can get the finish. The only outcome we don’t have on side is a grinding Mitchell points win.
UFC 282 betting tips:
Sunday 4:45am: Paddy Pimblett v Jared Gordon – Pimblett to Win by Submission in Round 1
Sunday 3:45am: Darren Till v Dricus Du Plessis – Darren Till to Win
Sunday 3:45am: Bryce Mitchell v Ilia Topuria – Under 2.5 Rounds
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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