*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
After the madness of March, MMA’s premiere promotion is back in London, with some big names set to appear.
Englishmen Tom Aspinall, Darren Till and Paddy ‘The Baddy’ Pimblett are all on the card, as Dana White brings the UFC back to the O2 Arena on 23rd July.
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Ahead of the action, our tipster Sean Taylor has put together some early tips on his winners, wrapped up into a neat treble, so let’s get his verdict…
UFC London 2022, 23rd July
TV: BT Sport, from 6pm.
*All start times are approximate
*A treble with these bets pays at approximately 9/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
The latest UFC odds are on PaddyPower.com now
Paddy Pimblett v Jordan Leavitt – Leavitt to win
8pm
I can’t get behind Paddy Pimblett as anything like a betting prospect at the prices we keep seeing him at. His style means his fights have a fair amount of volatility about them and I would want a bigger price to account for that.
His extreme weight cutting for fights is something that would raise concerns about how long he can keep being as hittable as he is before the extreme drop in size shows itself in a weakened chin.
Here, Jordan Leavitt will consistently look for the takedown and while Pimblett’s ground game means he won’t necessarily be worried about the fight taking place there, Leavitt has shown himself very capable of accumulating control time while on top.
In five UFC fights (including his Contender Series bout), he has accumulated just under 15 minutes of control time. It’s a space both will be comfortable in so it will be interesting to see who can assert their dominance here.
If Leavitt can defend Pimblett’s submission attempts, withstand the volume on the feet and control the fight on the ground I think he has a much better chance of winning this fight than his odds would suggest. At the current prices I think you’re getting a really nice bit of value on Leavitt here.
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Jack Hermansson v Darren Till – Hermansson to win
9pm
It’s hard to know where Darren Till is actually at coming into this fight. He is 1-4 since his contentious win over ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson in 2018. Till is known as a very good Muay Thai striker but his lack of output can often see him flatter to deceive.
This can be seen in the stat that he has been out landed by his opponent in his last five fights. In the Robert Whittaker fight it did feel like his inactivity was one of the factors which cost him the decision that night. He can often be lulled into periods of inactivity and it will be interesting to see how different he looks given the time spent out in Allstar’s gym in Sweden.
Jack Hermansson will offer a takedown threat and you’d expect the training with Khamzat Chimaev to be put to good effect here. At 75%, Till’s takedown defence is very good, but in fights he has lost, it has been his wrestling deficiencies which have cost him.
The Swede also lands roughly double the strikes per minute than that of his opponent so Till will have to be super effective with his output if he is to win rounds. Hermansson is likely going to be the one winning minutes with Till needing to land power shots to win minutes and rounds (if you haven’t, read up on the scoring criteria).
As I mentioned already, it’s hard to gauge where the 29-year-old Englishman is at and there are plenty of unknowns coming into this fight that will only be answered with the benefit of hindsight. So at the current prices, Hermansson is the side for me but I’d want a slightly bigger price before backing him.
Tom Aspinall v Curtis Blaydes – Aspinall to win
10pm
When this fight was announced I was initially unsure about the matchmaking. With Tom Aspinall coming off the back of blowing the roof of the O2 Arena I thought an entertaining match-up with someone like Tai Tuivasa made all the sense in the world. Curtis Blaydes is one of the worst stylistic match-ups for anyone in the heavyweight division and has the game to control anyone once he takes you down.
The common theme in Blaydes’ UFC losses is that he hasn’t landed a takedown in two of those three losses. The outlier there is his first fight against Francis N’Gannou where he landed two takedowns before getting hit with a nuke. It feels inevitable that this fight will hit the floor and the onus will be on the Englishman to either get it back to the feet or threaten submissions.
I think the current prices are fair and Blaydes being a slight favourite makes sense given his style. One issue that seems to befall a lot of fighters whose bread and butter is wrestling, is that he may be starting to fall in love his with his striking and Aspinall would certainly make him pay for that.
There is a clear path to victory there for the American, I’m just not sure the current price represents much value about him seeing out that path to victory. But, 29-year-old Aspinall will have a striking advantage and will offer much more of a submission threat, so won’t necessarily be afraid of this fight playing out on the ground.
At a current price of even money, I think Aspinall is the play but I think I’d be happy to side with whoever the underdog in this position.
Early UFC London Tips
Tom Aspinall v Curtis Blaydes – Aspinall to win
Jack Hermansson v Darren Till – Hermansson to win
Paddy Pimblett v Jordan Leavitt – Leavitt to win
*A treble with these bets pays at approximately 9/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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