* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
The UFC train doesn’t stop and this weekend it’s the first PPV of the weekend in Anaheim, California, which, funnily enough, is headlined by a man who hits like a train.
Sunday 5am: Brandon Moreno v Deiveson Figueiredo – Will the fight go the distance? Yes
Trilogies are interesting because it gets to the point where both fighters just know each other so well that it becomes unlikely either has anything overly new to bring to the table.
One thing of note is that Figueiredo has recently changed his camp to train alongside Henry Cejudo and Eric Albarracin. Let me call out the fact that Figueiredo has been looking shredded in recent pictures (of course, always take fighters posts on social media with a pinch of salt, but in the context of wider information I’m happy to buy into it here).
From a bettor’s perspective, the issue with Figueiredo is that you always wanted to wait and see him on the scales before deciding what version of him we’re likely to see. With the new camp, I think that’s somewhat less of a concern now. We saw these guys go the distance first time around and both showed amazing durability, Moreno, in particular, showcasing an amazing chin.
If it wasn’t for the groin kick, Figueiredo is very likely to have got the nod here. It’s hard to envisage Moreno being stopped and it wouldn’t be a very cardio friendly plan for Figueiredo to look to implement. I think the smarter path to victory sees this fight go late and there’s enough juice in the price to have a play here.
Sunday 6am: Francis N’Gannou to beat Ciryl Gane by KO/TKO
You can often get lost in a rabbit hole when breaking down a fight and looking through my notes for previous N’Gannou fights, for all his improving skill and power, his fights are some of the simpler to break down.
His path to victory is obvious and involves him absolutely nuking a fellow heavyweight. Conversely, Stipe Miocic laid out the blueprint to beating him in their first fight back in 2018. I wonder how well that blueprint would hold up now given the takedown defence he showed in their rematch last year.
It’s an interesting question because N’Gannou’s wrestling doesn’t need to be elite, it just needs to be good enough to make you think twice about shooting for a takedown. More to the point, N’Gannou in general doesn’t need to be better because in his right hand he carries the ultimate equaliser.
To win, Gane needs to be perfect for 25 minutes while N’Gannou doesn’t even land the perfect shot to knock you senseless. With that in mind, it makes the recent drift in N’Gannou’s price from 4/5 look a little strange based on all known information. Currently, you’re getting 7/5 about N’Gannou catching Gane and in a 25-minute fight it’s hard to imagine not happening. Comparatively, you’re getting 8/11 about Gane not getting hit over that period and that’s a price I’d be looking to take on.
Enjoy the fights!
* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
UFC 270 tips
Sunday 5am: Brandon Moreno v Deiveson Figueiredo – Will the fight go the distance? Yes
Sunday 6am: Francis N’Gannou to beat Ciryl Gane by KO/TKO