* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
After a rare weekend off, UFC 264 goes down on July 10th and it’s a big one with Conor McGregor looking to avenge his recent loss to Dustin Poirier. McGregor hasn’t done a great deal of media in the run-up to this fight and that’s added to the sense of intrigue.
This is a tough fight to break down and the questions around McGregor and where he’s at make it tough to decide whether or not he is a value bet. Comparably, Dustin Poirier is one of the most reliable and consistent lightweights ever. We’ve had a look at the main markets, and if you’re looking for a fun angle of entry into the fight, I’ve unearthed some interesting prop bets as well.
Over 2.5 rounds
If you look at the fight between these two in January, the leg kicks were vital to Poirier’s victory and McGregor will be much more prepared for those this time around.
With that in mind, I think we are likely see quite a technical stand-up bout that ultimately lends itself to a longer fight. Poirier knows he can take McGregor’s shot and that will be a huge psychological boost. McGregor will also know he won’t necessarily be able to finish Poirier inside a round.
Should the fight go the distance, both fighters are very proficient on the feet and we could see something of a slugfest, making it a difficult fight to score. Because of this the Over 2.5 Rounds market offers a nice bet that, should it click, means this is almost certain to be an entertaining fight.
Poirier to have a takedown in the 1st minute of Round 1
The #WhatOddsPaddy markets can be a great way to have a fun interest bet on a fight and one in particular caught my eye for the main event: Poirier to have a takedown in the first minute of Round 1. Any game plan to beat McGregor is going to have to involve even the threat of the fight going to the ground.
McGregor is notorious (see what I did there) for being a fast starter and we saw in January that even the threat of a takedown can be enough to help neutralise a quick start. If you watch the last fight back it’s noticeable how McGregor charges across the octagon almost before the fight had even begun.
McGregor does have good takedown defence but I think the price here is more than big enough to have a small stakes play. There is also a #WhatOddsPaddy price available on Poirier to have 1 or more takedowns in the entirety of Round 1 so if you’re a little more risk-averse, that might be worth having a look at.
Each fighter to have 80+ significant strikes
Another bet that offers a nice price, should the fight go deep, is both fighters to have 80+ significant strikes. McGregor landed 164 significant strikes in the Nate Diaz rematch and that was at a weight class 15 pounds above this lightweight limit. It’s not a stretch to think that fighting at his natural weight class will allow him to throw a similar volume as he did that night.
As well as that, he’s unlikely to load up on his shots as much as he did in January as he saw Dustin’s chin is a lot more solid than when they fought at featherweight in 2014. This lends itself to landing a higher volume of strikes as opposed to a smaller volume of power punches.
With regards to Poirier, in four of his last seven wins he has landed over 80 significant strikes while three of those four have gone the distance. It’s another bet that should it click it will mean an entertaining fight and let’s be honest; who doesn’t want an entertaining fight given we’ll likely be watching at around 5am? Enjoy the action!
McGregor v Poirier at UFC 264 tips
Over 2.5 Rounds
Poirier to have a takedown in the 1st minute of Round 1
Each fighter to have 80+ significant strikes
* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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