Grand National Tips: Paul Jacobs’ 5 value picks for the big one at Aintree

Value's the name of the game when PJ's in town.

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By / Grand National, Horse Racing Tips / 2 years ago

Grand National betting tips:

Gabbys Cross
The Big Breakaway
Roi Mage
Enjoy d’Allen
Fortescue

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With 40 runners in the Grand National there’s plenty of horses to chose from – and here’s champion tipster Paul Jacobs’ 5 to follow if you want to avoid the short-priced favourites in the betting

Gabbys Cross

Taking an unwarranted wide passage in the Thyestes Chase saw Henry de Bromhead’s representative run below par at the back end of last year, but either side of that run GABBYS CROSS has been in cracking form this campaign.

Winner of the Galway Chase in July, the eight-year-old has since finished a staying on four lengths sixth in the Paddy Power Chase over Christmas and then out up a similar late running performance when firing home late in the Leinster National at Naas when beaten a closing 12 lengths into third place. The one imponderable is that the son of Frammassone has yet to run within a mile of this marathon trip, but he shapes as though he will relish it and any dig in the ground would be a bonus too.

The Big Breakaway

The cliché in horse racing ‘always forgive a horse one bad run’ applies to this giant of a second season chaser. Gangly and under strength as a six-year-old, yet THE BIG BREAKAWAY still managed a second in the Kauto Star Novices Chase at Kempton, he has taken time to fill his enormous frame and therefore be able to use himself to maximum effect.

But there has been absolutely wrong with his two seconds this season over an extended three mile and one furlong at Haydock Park followed by a career best effort in trying to give 26lbs away to The Two Amigos in the Welsh Grand National and only failing by a length and a quarter. He was never going with any conviction in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, eventually being pulled up before four out. However, he has been freshened up since then and still only 3lbs higher than for his Chepstow run, he looks over priced for Aintree if surviving the first circuit.

Roi Mage

Eight wins from 38 starts over fences means that this exposed 11-year-old holds no secrets from both the handicapper or the form pundits, but every time ROI MAGE has run over three miles plus with soft in the ground description the veteran has excelled himself.

His best two runs have come on three of his last starts and in between he was cantering in the Cross Country Handicap Chase at Cheltenham in January when coming down at the 20th fence. The race before that the selection ran out of his skin when a 50/1 shot, but only beaten some 16 lengths by Minella Indo and Stattler in the Grade Three Savill’s New Year’s Day Chase at Tramore. He then galloped on strongly when a length and a half second to Longhouse Poet (now 11lbs better off) at Down Royal. The wet forecast is hugely in his favour and this extended distance also promises to suit him.

Enjoy d’Allen

You are probably bellowing out ‘what absolute rubbish’ at this selection, but down through the years in Grand National history at least one horse usually hits the first half dozen at huge odds and this nine-year-old could fit the bill this time around. Last season, following a strong finishing three length third of 28 in the Paddy Power Chase, ENJOY D’ALLEN was one of the best backed outsiders in the week before the Liverpool feature and went off at 20/1 having been 66’s less than 10 days beforehand.

Yes, his form this campaign has been far less uninspiring, but he was only beaten 14 lengths in the Paddy Power Chase again, off a mark of 147 (66/1) and his subsequent run in the Bobbyjo Chase came off a slack pace which ultimately meant he was badly outpaced at halfway eventually beaten 36 lengths by Kemboy. It is a shot in the dark, but granted slower ground and a clear round of jumping on the first circuit (got no further than the first last year) his undoubted stamina could see him outrun his big odds.

Fortescue

There are two key pieces of form that give this stamina-laden gelding a chance of belying his odds and they have both come this season. First up came FORTESCUE‘s late running fourth of 22 over these fences in the Becher Chase. On that occasion the nine-year-old got well behind, but Hugh Nugent didn’t panic on him and just let him pop his fences in rear. Given a real hurry up after Valentines Brook he went from being tailed off to coming home like an absolute rocket to be beaten a mere 10 lengths by Ashdown Lad. Then last time out he gave a very similar performance when powering down the home straight in the extended three and a half mile, Grade Three Grand National Trial at Haydock Park, eventually coming home some 27 lengths off Quick Wave.

Based on those two runs the extra three quarters of a mile should prove right down his alley way and any give in the ground would also be a bonus. He is the type of late running and quirky individual who could motor home from the Melling Road on the final circuit and beat off several better fancied runners. His feather weight is the cream on the cake.

Paul Jacobs’ Grand National tips:

Gabbys Cross
The Big Breakaway
Roi Mage
Enjoy d’Allen
Fortescue

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

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