Epsom Derby: 5 key trends to consider ahead of Saturday’s Classic

A look back through the stats...

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*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

The leading three-year-olds head to Epsom on Saturday for the Derby, the most prestigious race of the British Flat racing season.

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If you’re planning to have a punt on the fourth Classic of the year then it’s always worth looking through the history books for a few trends to potentially help you pick a winner.

To save you the trouble of doing your own painstaking research, we’ve picked out five key trends to consider before having a bet on the 2022 Epsom Derby.

Draw

A high draw has generally been a good thing in the last 10 runnings of the Epsom Derby, with the mean stall number of the winners for that period being 8.8. Adayar significantly brought the average down when scoring from stall 1 in last year’s renewal. In fact, eight of the last 10 winners were all drawn from stall 7 or higher.

Sire

Galileo has produced four of the last 10 winners of the Epsom Derby – Serpentine (2020), Anthony Van Dyck (2019), Australia (2014) and Ruler Of The World (2013).

A changing of the guard took place last year as Galileo was replaced by his own son, Frankel, as the leading sire in Great Britain and Ireland after Adayar stormed to victory in this. Westover and Nahanni are the only Frankel colts in this year’s renewal.

At the other end of the scale, Dubawi has failed to sire a winner from five runners, however, which is bad news for Walk Of Stars backers.

Starting Price

The market has been a decent indicator as seven of the last 12 winners of the Epsom Derby were in the top three in the betting. It’s also worth noting that 18 of the last 20 winners had a starting price no bigger than 16/1 – Adayar’s SP after a late gamble on the day 12 months ago. You can check out the latest odds on the Paddy Power website.

Adayar-Epsom-Derby-win-2021

Form

A bit of experience on the track is key as 10 of the last 12 winners had at least three previous runs on the Flat before scoring in the Classic. Despite being the antepost favourite, Sir Michael Stoute’s Desert Crown has only made two racecourse appearances in his fledgling career. West Wind Blows and El Habeeb are the only others entrants to have also made fewer than three career starts.

Trainer

Ballydoyle master Aidan O’Brien has enjoyed plenty go success in the Epsom Derby in recent years, saddling six of the last 10 winners. He is also the leading trainer in the history of the race with eight wins in total. O’Brien throws three darts at this year’s renewal – Stone Age, Changingoftheguard and Star Of India.

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