Cheltenham Tips: Paul Jacobs’ value plays on Thursday and Friday include an 18/1 fancy

PJ's on the hunt for value at the biggest meeting of them all.

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By / Cheltenham Festival, Horse Racing Tips / 2 months ago

Paul Jacobs’ Cheltenham Racing Tips

13:30 Thursday – Zanahiyr
15:30 Thursday – Noble Yeats
14:10 Friday – Bialystok
14:50 Friday – Lecky Watson

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

13:30 Thursday – Zanahiyr

In this field of 11 there are plenty of pressers so I am not quite sure that the fluent-jumping Ginny’s Destiny is going to get his own way up front, while market rival Grey Dawning is surely a better chaser over further and his jumping will be tested back over this shorter distance. In contrast, I expect Facile Vega to improve for this step up in trip and I simply cannot understand why he hasn’t tried it over hurdles or fences before now as he screams stamina.

But the huge value bet surely has to be Gordon Elliott’s charge Zanahiyr who has always run well over hurdles here and could be the joker in the pack. It was no surprise to see him unable to lay a glove on Fact To File at Leopardstown on his chasing debut and he put that experience to good use when, after a few early sticky jumps, he got the better of the useful Aspire Tower in the closing stages at Thurles.

This extra half mile looks sure to be up his street and at a double figure price he simply looks too big for me. Granted, there are question marks over several of the leading players here.

15:30 Thursday – Noble Yeats

I am absolutely flabbergasted that Monkfish skips this Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle in favour of the Gold Cup as I thought this was his for the taking following his smooth comeback win, but who am I to question Willie Mullins? Flooring Porter is obviously interesting back over hurdles, while Home By The Lee has been very well backed in the past couple of weeks and we all remember how desperately unlucky he was 12 months ago.

The admirable Paisley Park would take the roof off several of the grandstands were he to fly up the hill and regain his championship and the ground has come right for him, but in the end I thought that there was still mileage in the price of the Emmet Mullins’ charge Noble Yeats. Yes, I hear you say he was flattered by his win in the Cleeve Hurdle when they went far too quickly and the race fell apart all around him, but then had to battle on very strongly to beat Paisley Park.

It is worth remembering that this will only be his fourth start over hurdles and the more of a grind this becomes the better for the 2022 Aintree Grand National hero.

 

14:10 Friday – Bialystok

Just 2lbs higher than when a neck second to Falvoir 12 months ago, Pied Piper will be the choice of many to defy his welter burden and he arrives here a fresh animal with just the two runs since August, the last of them in November. Some 12 lengths off Tullyhill at Punchestown in February, Westport Cove interests me off a mark of 139 as I think this race will play to his strengths, while best of the home contingent could well be the lightly raced outsider Afadil who has a very high cruising speed and I can see him creeping into the race from the top of the hill and the long run home.

But I am going back to the source of the top part of this preview, and a certain WP Mullins and his other novice entry. There is little doubt that Bialystok would have beaten Lord Erskine in a Listed handicap hurdle at Leopardstown last time out but for being brought down two out. On all his previous hurdles’ runs he has looked the type to be suited by a big field, end to end gallop and that is exactly what he will get here. I suspect the double figure price available as I pen this piece will not last very long.

14:50 Friday – Lecky Watson

I always have huge respect for Paul Nicholls in this race as staying National Hunt horses are hugely his domain and that was once again backed up by the brave winning performance of Stay Away Fay 12 months ago so his Captain Teague must come under consideration at a double figure price following his win in the Challow Hurdle at Newbury. However, that form has been badly let down since with only the fifth home winning since, but that needs qualifying as Masaccio only won a moderate novice hurdle at Kempton Park at 1/6.

I am not so sure that High Class Hero is the sort who will relish a battle and has done all his winning in small fields and much prefer the stable’s Reading Tommy Wrong, but his price has well and truly come and gone. The value call for me has to be another Closutton inmate Lecky Watson who comes here a fresh horse following a 63-day break.

I have looked at all of his races and he does tend to lose concentration in running, whether this is through greenness or just his make-up I do not know. What I do know is that he has a real engine inside and staying is his game.

That asset was fully shown with staying on placed efforts behind Slade Steel in the Navan Novice Hurdle and then in the Lawlor’s behind Reading Tommy Wrong. Both of those races were over two and a half miles and didn’t fully showcase his strengths; this race will. The first time hood will hopefully see him fully concentrate on the job in hand throughout the three miles.

Paul Jacobs’ Cheltenham Tips

13:30 Thursday – Zanahiyr
15:30 Thursday – Noble Yeats
14:10 Friday – Bialystok
14:50 Friday – Lecky Watson

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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