Just 12 days. That’s your lot.
Long enough to believe your own hype; your own reading of the form; or in some sad, sadistic cases – belief in the bloke your uncle swears gives him the 4/6 winner of a maiden at Ayr once a year.
And while everyone is getting busy wondering how they’ll somehow cramp all 28 winners into a single betslip, I’m encouraging people to think about the bigger picture.
One of the best elements of the growing profile of the Cheltenham Festival is how much the extras matter. No longer do we solely focus on the races, but the storylines around jockeys, trainers, winning margins – hey, even looking ahead to 2024 before this year’s renewals have even kicked off.
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I’m here today to bring you through some of the best ‘other’ bits you can get stuck into before the flag falls in the Supreme.
Leading Trainer w/o Willie Mullins?
Well you hardly thought we were going to tip a market including Closutton did you?
Willie had 10 winners at the Festival last year and if you’d only counted his winners on the Friday, he’d still have won the bloody thing.
So, let us focus on Gordon Elliott, Nicky Henderson and Henry de Bromhead. Primarily because Paul Nicholls will pull half of his out 10 minutes before the off due to a shady blade of grass and Dan Skelton will have to endure Harry’s rides.
Gordon is the obvious one but he does his damage in handicaps and as previously mentioned the British have him well sized up, or at least you’d think. Nicky Henderson has a big chance, but he seems more keen to run his best horses against each other which is admirable but less pragmatic.
That leaves us with what would be one of the best racing stories of the last while – after suffering real tragedy in 2022, Henry De Bromhead landing multiple winners in the Cotswolds would surely bring a tear.
People end up falling into the same traps every year, too. Henry’s early-season runners look sluggish and undercooked. Ehh, yeah – that’s why he peaks them for the Spring.
He remains the only trainer to have won the big three of the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase & Gold Cup at a single Festival and while many are bemoaning the slow start to his year, he’s currently maintaining a 15 per cent seasonal strike rate – the same tally as last year, and the year before.
And he’s currently operating at a very impressive 20 per cent strike rate over the last three weeks.
It’s almost like he trains like this for a reason.
Race with largest winning distance?
I’m not going to sit here and tell you to back something in a handicap because nobody in their right mind even knows how much a horse has in hand, let alone how much they could potentially have over the others.
There’s a very obvious answer to this and it’s the Ryanair Chase. And unfortunately that’s not because our old friend Allaho is not running but because a division that’s seriously deprived of class outside of the great gelding now has an eye-catcher in Shishkin.
In truth, he’d not be far off in the Champion Chase, but a repeat of what he did last time out at Ascot will see absolutely romp home in this field.
You have to remember that Fakir d’Dourairies was the ante-post favourite for this race before that run at Ascot. Shishkin put 23 lengths between them that day, and there’s nothing in this race as good as even him.
Stepping Blue Lord up in trip is complete guesswork from WP Mullins and this could look over by mid-race.
Race with biggest SP?
The British handicapper and the betting public has wised up to the Irish raiders that look like plot jobs so this is a tricky category. I’d also avoid amateur jockeys and conditional races like the NH Chase and Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle because there’s a real premium on securing the best riders.
The best jockeys end up on the market leaders for that very reason.
The complexion of the Grand Annual has changed from it’s day and course switch, while the re-named Craft Irish Whiskey Chase has had four winners in the last five at 5/1 or less, so that’s a bad play.
I landed on the Pertemps Network Final Hurdle for a few reasons. The first is that you’re guaranteed a decent-sized field because of the qualifier system, secondly the ones that didn’t win a qualifier can bounce back in some style. There’s also more conspiracy theories about the race, than there is about who shot JFK.
That generally means you can get a flyer at a big enough price to make this market interesting.
What will be the biggest SP?
The only winner of the Champion Hurdle to be a double-figure price in the last decade was the ill-fated Espoir D’Allen, and he was only 16/1 in 2019, while the biggest winner of the Queen Mother in the last decade was Special Tiara at 11/1.
Similarly with the Cheltenham Gold Cup, the only shock winner this century was Lord Windermere – and even that was 14/1.
The Stayers’ Hurdle is the most likely of these to produce a big-price winner like Lisnagar Oscar from a few years back at 50/1. However looking at the entries, you’d need something like Sire Du Berlais, who’s 11 years old to show the dash he hasn’t had for a few years and the top of the market looks very deep.
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