Cheltenham Festival: 6 things you need to know in our layman’s survival guide

Not too sure what all the fuss is about? Here's some top line stories to help you tune in.

By / Cheltenham Festival, Horse Racing News / 1 year ago

*Odds quoted on the widget are Future Racing / Antepost prices which means that if your selection does not run in the race for whatever reason – you will lose your stake under traditional Antepost rules

Victory Loves Preparation. While Jason Statham didn’t specifically refer to Cheltenham in the middle of his soliloquy in the 2011 thriller ‘The Mechanic’, I still reckon he had backed Al Ferof in the Supreme.

But without stressing the point through obscure film quotes, folks – it’s now six weeks to the Cheltenham Festival 2023.

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You’ll be riddled with advice from two-bob punters over the next 42 days and the combined worth of it wouldn’t pay for a pint of Guinness on-track.

I’m here not to direct you towards one line of thought, but to give you six different strategies you can adopt as your own as the piece de resistance in the National Hunt calendar comes at us faster than Corach Rambler storming up the hill from way back to win last year.

1. The Miracle Multi:

We all know full-well that short-price mounts are there for a reason, and while there’s no grace in boasting about backing an odds-on shot come the week of Cheltenham, your wallet could be better-off for multiple reasons.

Right now, there are four horses in the antepost market that are 11/8 or shorter. They are Facile Vega in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, Constitution Hill in Tuesday’s Champion Hurdle showpiece, Lossiemouth in the Triumph Hurdle and last year’s Cross Country winner Delta Work to repeat.

You can very easily invest in those four horses right now and be fairly confident you’ll get a run for your money. It also provides you with an interest for the entire Festival as opposed to doing your all your stake on the Tuesday and being on the outside looking in by the National Hunt Chase on the Tuesday.

The accumulator pays a touch over 10/1 at the moment, while you could also hedge slightly and chuck them into a Lucky 15.

It’s probably not going to make you the billionaire you dream of  becoming but it’ll give you fond memories of a week where every day mattered. That seems like a sensible transaction to me.

2. Green Grass of Home:

This year actually feels like the Brits have a stronger hand than from their annihilation a couple of years ago. That’s not to say it will transpire and the Prestbury Cup is still a heavy blow of odds-on to go to the Irish.

With that in mind it might be time for some reverse psychology and that lets you take on the short-priced British fancies with some Irish raiders. It might just make you the shrewdest patriot since Mel Gibson.

Constitution Hill is long odds on in the Champion Hurdle, but could Mullins plot a strategic one-two punch of State Man and Vauban to unsettle him?

Jonbon too heads the Arkle Chase market after a couple of gimmes in the UK. But Willie Mullins’ pair of Dysart Dyanmo and El Fabiolo could well unsettle him in a multi-pronged attack.

Edwardstone is now favourite for the Champion Chase after chasing home Editeur Du Gite at Trials Day last Saturday with the ante-post fav Energumene back in third. Would you take the odds that result will be the same in mid-March?

3. Don’t See The Stars:

First off, sorry for the woeful pun. But if you genuinely are afraid of getting involved in a race because you believe a fav is too good, then simply take the betting without market if available.

In this instance, you can omit the leading contender and the betting heat factors them out of it. For example, maybe you’re keen to have a punt in the Champion Hurdle but can’t find an angle because Constitution Hill is shorter than a Frodo Baggins/Tyrion Lannister hybrid.

Well, State Man is 4/5 without the odds on ante-post favourite in this market. Those of you with longer memories may wish to stay loyal to Honeysuckle at 7/2 to beat everyone else on the day– bar Constitution Hill – too. If either beat the ‘Hill’ you’re still quids in.

The same thing with Facile Vega. A surefire thing for the Supreme? Well maybe you like Marine Nationale, Tahmuras or Impaire Et Passe (all priced between 5/2 and 6/1) to be the best of the rest?

Don’t get bogged down by one horse dominating the markets because you can play Cheltenham your own way.

4. Cotswold Kings:

Come Cheltenham week, you’ll see a heap of money come for the names of the big training yards and better-known jockeys. Why? Because they get results time and time again. But why not get ahead? The same names typically get in the winners enclosure so back them now and cash in before the prices move against you on the day.

Gordon Elliott is a prime example of a trainer whose Cheltenham team may look a little underwhelming by his standard but will ultimately get buzzy two days out and go on to land their fair share of prizes. As will the sentiment behind Davy Russell’s return to the saddle.

Elliott has 34 Cheltenham winners so clearly knows how to get one right for the jaunt around.

And while he’ll be stacked in the tricky handicaps, the likes of Gerri Colombe, Teahupoo, American Mike and Conflated will come out swinging in the Graded races too.

Form is temporary. Class is permanent.  Don’t over look the Elliott factor no matter what the markets say.

5. Festival Favs:

Your hipster mate’s Cheltenham banker has never won going left-handed – but he doesn’t know that. You can win the bragging rights by doubling down on Cheltenham-happy horses who’ve been there, done that.

The term ‘horses for courses’ wasn’t just plucked out of thin air by your grandfather no matter the amount of lies he tells you. And it’s still ringing true even now.

Sure, it may be factored into the price but taking part isn’t a phrase to get too comfortable with over four consecutive days of top-class racing. Winning counts.

6. One-Hit Wonder:

Sometimes boring is good. Especially when it comes to ante-post betting.

Rather than trying to second-guess trainers figuring out which novices go where ahead of key Trials at the Dublin Racing Festival this weekend, we can be fairly sure of certain horses’ final Cheltenham targets.

Allaho, for example, has the exact same prep every year. He’ll be going to the Ryanair Chase – if he’s back from injury – end of story. The reigning champ Delta Work will only go now for the Cross Country Chase. Paul Nicholls’ Hermes Allen will go for the Ballymore Hurdle that opens the card on Wednesday.

If you must bet ante-post the golden rule is to narrow it to horses that have one solid target. A scatter-gun approach will cost you. There’s no point losing your stake by backing the right horse in the wrong race, before the roar goes up for the first race on Tuesday, March 12.

*Odds quoted on the widget are Future Racing / Antepost prices which means that if your selection does not run in the race for whatever reason – you will lose your stake under traditional Antepost rules

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