Cheltenham Tips: Ruby Walsh & Rory Delargy deliver dire Arkle verdict for Third Time Lucki backers

Paddy's pundits think Third Time Lucki's got no chance at Cheltenham.

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By / Cheltenham Festival, Horse Racing Tips / 2 years ago

*Odds quoted on the widget are Non Runner Money Back prices which means that if your selection does not run in the race for whatever reason – you’ll get your stake back

The Arkle Chase is set to be one of the most open Grade 1s at the Cheltenham Festival 2022 after antepost favourite Ferny Hollow was ruled out through injury.

Third Time Lucki has drifted in our Non Runner Money Back betting market after being beaten by Alan King’s Edwardstone in the Kingmaker Novices’ Chase at Warwick.

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It was the second time this season that Edwardstone comprehensively beat Dan Skelton’s charge after a storming victory in December’s Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown.

The Arkle was the subject of discussion on this week’s episode of our Cheltenham Countdown podcast series, and two of Paddy’s pundits can’t see any reason to think Third Time Lucki can live up to his name and get the better of his rival at Cheltenham next month. You can listen to the show in full BELOW.

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Ruby Walsh:

“I just don’t see Third Time Lucki turning it round with Edwardstone.

“I thought he looked really good in the Lightning Novices’ Chase at Doncaster but that was off a break of almost 60 days and I was surprised Dan went back to war with him as quick as he did two weeks later.

“He’s looked to me a really good horse fresh and they’ve taken that freshness off him now.”

Rory Delargy:

“I was surprised how good a race the Kingmaker was. It was really well run as you suspected it might have been given the makeup of the field with For Pleasure going on.

“It panned out really well with no excuses for any runner and Edwardstone was really impressive with everything he did. I was slightly concerned that coming back to a sharpish tack on good ground might see him outside of his comfort zone but he wasn’t at all. He looked in control throughout the race.

“Third Time Lucki was set up to beat him. Someone who was there said there were long faces in the enclosure afterwards. I think the Skeltons thought that Third Time Lucki could get one over on Edwardstone.

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“If you look at the pattern of his form last season he didn’t get any better from this stage. He’s always travelled strong in his races and they found the key to him to a degree as he was happy to be held up at Doncaster and again he was held up and jumped well but he had every chance and he’s been beaten over 4l.

“He wouldn’t have needed the run at all having come off that Doncaster win recently. There’s nothing in that to suggest he can turn the form around with Edwardstone. He didn’t look enormously happy at Cheltenham last season. He handles the track perfectly well with two wins this season but he’s never exactly come up the hill. When he won first time out the race was stone cold and on the second start, Harry [Skelton] steadied him into the second last but he didn’t exactly see that out thoroughly.

“Going to Cheltenham is not going to be a positive for Third Time Lucki over Edwardstone. All it takes is one mistake to throw it all out of kilter but there’s no obvious thing to hang a turnaround in form on.”

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

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