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After running the rule over the potential runners in the National Hunt Chase, the latest addition to our stable of tipsters, Rory Delargy, has identified a horse that ‘ticks all the boxes’ and could deliver a fifth winner in the renewal for Gordon Elliott.
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The National Hunt Chase has a strong trend to horses with experience, particularly at three miles or more. You’ve got to jump well, stay well and cope with a big field. It hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for lightly-raced horses. It’s remarkable that if you look at the contenders a lot of them have only had one or two runs over fences and it’s remarkable how well horses that have had six, seven, eight, nine or even 10 runs over fences actually do in this race.
What you fundamentally want is a lot of experience and, ideally, I’d be looking at a second-season chaser if I could find one who has proven decent at handicaps. Thankfully in this race there is a standout, RUN WILD FRED. I know he’s at the top of the market but he has everything you want.
Gordon Elliott’s made it clear he wants to run the horse in the race and he was suggesting that the biggest problem he might have is convincing the owners to run. He had the perfect result over Christmas, being done in the Neville Hotels which suggested that he’d be better stepping up in trip. His form is around three miles but he gives the impression he will stay very well.
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He’s got the perfect experience being a Troytown winner and having 10 starts over fences now so he fits the mould. He also fits the mould of horses Gordon has aimed at the race before.
Of the other contenders, Vanillier’s jumping isn’t brilliant and you’d worry about how he’d cope with it. I’d also worry about any of the horses that looked impressive making all on their chase debut and going in there on the back of one or two runs as we’ve seen that backfire before.
Run Wild Fred ticks all the boxes and because Gordon’s had the race in mind he’ll get the jockey he wants on the day. He looks one of the most solid short-priced ones. There are horses that are, arguably, better than him but very few will end up running in the race.
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