Several trends are worth noting when it comes to the Grand National, and here I will lay out which ones are worth following and which of the 2025 Grand National entries best meets the key betting trends.
Key Grand National Trends
The Grand National may not be the spectacle that it used to be in years gone by, but the stats in recent years have all aligned to point you in the direction of the next Grand National winner.
I’ve outlined four key trends, broken down who matches each one, and finally given you the horses who match all four key trends.
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14 out of the last 16 winners were having their first start in the Grand National.
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22 out of the past 20 winners were ages 8-10.
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The past nine winners were ages nine or younger.
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Five of the last seven winners won last time out.
14 out of the last 16 winners were having their first start in the Grand National
This is one of the more popular trends for this year’s Grand National, with many runners under this umbrella. Here are some of the leading contenders who are having their first start in the Grand National.
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Iroko – Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
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Intense Raffles – Thomas Gibney
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Stumptown – Gavin Cromwell
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Hewick – Shark Hanlon
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Perceval Legallios – Gavin Cromwell
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Nick Rocket – Willie Mullins
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Three Card Brag – Gordon Elliott
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Monbeg Genius – Jonjo & A J O’Neill
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Senior Chief – Henry de Bromhead
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Kandoo Kid – Paul Nicholls
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Grangeclare West – Willie Mullins
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Minella Cocooner – Willie Mullins
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Bravemansgame – Paul Nicholls
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L’Homme Presse – Venetia Williams
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Broadway Boy – Nigel Twiston-Davies
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Stay Away Fay – Paul Nicholls
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Threeunderthrufive – Paul Nicholls
22 out of the past 20 winners were ages 8-10
Now, it is time to cross out from the above list some who are one year too old or too young.
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Stumptown (8) – Gavin Cromwell
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Hewick (10) – Shark Hanlon
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Perceval Legallios (8) – Gavin Cromwell
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Nick Rocket (8) – Willie Mullins
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Three Card Brag (8) – Gordon Elliott
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Monbeg Genius (9) – Jonjo & A J O’Neill
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Senior Chief (8) – Henry de Bromhead
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Kandoo Kid (9) – Paul Nicholls
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Grangeclare West (9) – Willie Mullins
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Minella Cocooner (9) – Willie Mullins
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Bravemansgame (10) – Paul Nicholls
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L’Homme Presse (10) – Venetia Williams
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Stay Away Fay (8) – Paul Nicholls
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Threeunderthrufive (10)– Paul Nicholls
The past nine winners were ages nine or younger & rated 146-160
Age comes into play again, but we also add in the rating of the past nine winners, and the list shortens even more, leaving us with eight contenders.
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Stumptown 157 (8) – Gavin Cromwell
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Perceval Legallios 153 (8) – Gavin Cromwell
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Three Card Brag 146 (8) – Gordon Elliott
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Monbeg Genius 147 (9) – Jonjo & A J O’Neill
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Senior Chief 151 (8) – Henry de Bromhead
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Kandoo Kid 152 (9) – Paul Nicholls
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Minella Cocooner 157 (9) – Willie Mullins
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Stay Away Fay 150 (8) – Paul Nicholls
Five of the last seven winners won last time out
The final key trend we look at is last-time-out winners, as 5 of the last 7 Grand National winners won their final race before tackling the Grand National. Surprisingly, this leaves us with a final list of three, with two trained by Gold Cup-winning trainer Gavin Cromwell.
Stumptown 157 (8) – Gavin Cromwell
The Gavin Cromwell gelding has turned himself inside out this season and has become a cross-country specialist, culminating in a win in the cross-country chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
This highly progressive 8yo will look to follow in the footsteps of two-time Grand National hero Tiger Roll and win the Grand National on the back of Cheltenham Festival glory.
Perceval Legallios 153 (8) – Gavin Cromwell
Having threatened to win a big handicap chase for months, Perceval Lagallios finally put it all together to win the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival, and something has suddenly clicked with this 8yo as he has since gone on to back that win up with a win back over hurdles at the Dublin Racing Festival.
He has always struck me as a horse who is a lot better than he has shown so far, and if that is the case, Perceval Legallios is the type of horse that will rise to the challenge that the Grand National presents.
Monbeg Genius 147 (9) – Jonjo & A J O’Neill
Monbeg Genius may have never run in a Grand National. But he did chase home Corach Rambler in the 2023 Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival before the Lucinda Russell-trained gelding went on to take the Grand National weeks later.
Since then, Monbeg Genuis has become very frustrating, failing to win in seven runs since his last win. However, he bounced right back to form when taking a 0-145 off top weight, reminding everyone of his capabilities.
He is now back up to a rating of 147, but it wasn’t too long ago that he wasn’t beaten far off this mark, and if he is jumping holds up over the National fences, Monbeg Genius could well spring a minor shock.
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