Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Horse Racing Tips
14:45 Carlisle – Raffles Wonder (Caraci Castle)
15:20 Carlisle – East Street
16:13 Exeter – Neo King
16:38 Limerick – Sainte Dona
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
14:45 Carlisle – Raffles Wonder (Caraci Castle)
A cracking day of racing at the Cumbrian track with several series finals named after some of the most popular horses to hail from the north of England. This is the One Man Series Final Handicap Chase over two miles.
The first thing you notice about this run-off is the huge pace on top, with several front runners and pressers set to go to post.
That could mean this is set up for a hold-up horse, which is further magnified by having to race home up the stiffest finish in the country (Hexham probably matches it in that respect).
Five Dollar Fine is surprisingly the only course and distance winner in the lineup. He was well behind Glory And Honour last time out but lost a shoe.
The drop back to two miles will suit him around here, but both will surely be vulnerable to RAFFLES WONDER arriving here following a light season, a huge advantage and being a hold-up player.
Despite winning by 10 lengths last time out (only in a Class 5 event), he has undergone wind surgery and that will surely bring him forward here and enable him to finish his race off much better.
This is obviously a much bigger mountain to climb, literally, but this will be only his fourth career start, so expect him to step up again.
I may well have a saver on CARCACI CASTLE whose best form has always been on a stiff track and Kelso simply didn’t suit him. Back down to his last mark, I will also be backing him in a forecast with the main selection.
15:20 Carlisle – East Street
This Red Rum Series Final Handicap Chase looks a good strength in depth renewal with course and distance winner Red Happy on a hat-trick after winning off marks of 109 and 111, but 114 looks a very fair adjustment and he has to be in the mix.
EAST STREET chalked up an early season hat-trick and many of you will probably feel that a rating of 118 is tough on him.
However, after winning three class four events before the turn of the year, the nine-year-old was given some tough tests in class two and three events, certainly not being disgraced in the Sussex National when still in with a chance turning for home, but on the soft ground not quite seeing out the extended three and a half mile trip.
Down in trip, against lesser horses here and most crucially on a sounder surface, the selection will be much more at home. Dropping from a handicap rating of 123 to his current mark of 118 is also a plus and I think he can give the weight away all round.
16:13 Exeter – Neo King
Despite the quick ground, this extended 3m6f trip will still take some getting and a beaten favourite last time out, Concetto is a dangerous runner here.
His last few outings have been blotted by some early mistakes, after which he simply seemed to lose his confidence, but if he were to get into a rhythm, he could get loose on the lead and be hard to reel in.
His run behind the progressive O’Connell in December makes his mark of 105 look interesting, having run off 115 at the Lincolnshire track.
That leads me in the direction of the NEO KING, who has run well here on his last two starts, albeit on deeper ground and this will be just his fourth run over fences and his seventh under rules.
Any worries that he won’t be effective on this spring ground can, to a certain extent, be pushed aside by his point-to-point runs early in his career. However, the biggest factor in his favour is distance and he gets a barrow-load of weight from those at the top of the handicap. Undeniably, the class acts in Art Deco and Bretney.
16:38 Limerick – Sainte Dona
As regular readers will know, this is my type of race. My only disappointment is the field size of just 13, as I usually like to pick out a massively priced runner who has been lurking in the shadows.
Invictus Machin has to be included in any betting profiles. I think he will come into his own on this spring ground and he was a big eye-catcher on his return from two months off the track when making late headway behind Midweek Voices at Gowran Park.
With Patrick O’Brien taking over in the saddle, his 7lbs claim makes the seven-year-old even more interesting, just behind SAINTE DONA at a bigger price.
Old Soul was another at a big price. I could see it running well right down to 106 and having run in the deep winter ground, this will surely suit better. However, the mare is slightly more dependable.
Thomas Cooper’s charge has been racing in some classier races of late and she looked as though a winning run in this kind of grade was just around the corner.
Young Tom Kelly, who rode a smart race on her last time out at Punchestown, is on board again and I suspect he will try and ride her with a bit more patience to enable her to get home. A lot will obviously depend on how keen she is to post early on.
Sunday Racing Tips
14:45 Carlisle – Raffles Wonder (Caraci Castle)
15:20 Carlisle – East Street
16:13 Exeter – Neo King
16:38 Limerick – Sainte Dona
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at the time of publishing but subject to change.
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