Cheltenham Day 1 key trends for today’s races at the 2025 Festival

Can the stats point us in the right direction?

Lark In The Mornin runs clear of his rivals in the Fred Winter

After months of waiting, the 2025 Cheltenham Festival launches into action this afternoon.

You’ve been through the card and run the rule over the horses, but it’s always worth making note of key trends before surveying Paddy Power’s Cheltenham Festival odds and having a punt.

Is headgear a cause for alarm? Does the horse you fancy lack the necessary form to win? Has a runner been off the track for too long?

You’re in luck as we’ve compiled some killer stats for today’s seven races on the Cheltenham Festival schedule.

Get In The Know: Cheltenham Race Card Today | Cheltenham Festival Free Live Stream | Cheltenham Festival on TV Today | Cheltenham Festival Radio Coverage

13:20: Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

A worry for Kopek Des Bordes, who wears a first-time hood, is that every horse sporting head gear since 1992 has been beaten.

If you’re looking for alternatives to Kopek Des Bordes then a negative for Workahead is that the last 12 winners had scored on two occasions or more over 15-17 furlongs.

14:00: My Pension Expert Arkle Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

Majborough is the red-hot favourite but the last five-year-old to claim the spoils was Voy Por Ustedes in 2006 and since then horses of that age are 0-16.

It helps to arrive in hot form as 11 of the last 12 winners were successful last time out – Jango Baie and Touch Me Not could only finish second in their latest outings.

14:40: Ultima Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)

Irish-trained horses have a terrible record in the race, with two wins in the last 56 editions.

Headgear can be interpreted as a positive as 10 of the last 13 winners had some form of accessory.

15:20: Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

It could be worth avoiding Jetara and Gala Marceau as one of the last 33 runners have won wearing headgear.

The 10 most recent winners of the Mares’ Hurdle had their previous run within the last 52 days – Dysart Enos, July Flower and Kala Conti have been off the track for longer.

16:00: Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)

The last 12 winners of the Champion Hurdle were rated 157 or higher – Burdett Road (150), Golden Ace (144), King Of Kingsfield (146) and Winter Fog (150) are all inferior in the eyes of the handicapper.

A concern for Constitution Hill backers is that 13 International Hurdle winners have tried to win the Champion Hurdle in the last 21 years – all have failed.

16:40: Hallgarten And Novum Wines Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap)

A total of 63 British-bred horses have taken their chance in the last 15 years and none of them won.

Every winner of the race was making their first appearance at Cheltenham so it’s worth going through the form.

17:20: Princess Royal National Hunt Novices’ Handicap Chase

The race is being run as a novices’ handicap (0-145) for the first time, but Irish trainers Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott boasted good records in its previous guises.

Cheltenham Festival Day 1 Tips

The latest racing odds are on PaddyPower.com now

The Paddy Power Guide To Safer Gambling – Everything You Need To Know