Paul Jacobs’ Cheltenham Racing Tips
Tuesday – 13:20 – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle: Workahead / Karniqut (Each-Way)
Tuesday – 17:20 – National Hunt Chase: Hasthing (Each-Way)
Wednesday – 16:40 – Grand Annual Handicap Chase: So Scottish
Thursday – 16:00 – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle: Ga Law (Each-Way)
Friday – 17:20 – Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle: Deep Cave (Each-Way)
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
*Paddy Power is now Non Runner Money Back for the 2025 Cheltenham Festival. That means that if your selection does not line up in the race you back it in for any reason – you will now get your stake back. TC’s apply.
As always there’s been much discussion around the state of the going for the festival, but with a dry week behind us, the common consensus is that day one will start on good to soft ground which has always been the aim. However, on top of that there could be some watering, which despite the mainly dry forecast recently needs to be done with great care.
When you consider seven days ago the ground was described as ‘soft’ all round, even a small shift in the weather – with the odd shower – could change the state of the turf with the water table very high through February into March, so bear this in mind, it’s of great importance.
Tuesday – 13:20 – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle: Workahead / Karniquet (Each-Way)
The modern trend both on the flat and in the national hunt game is for the big stables to have multiple entries even when they are likely to be represented by a hot favourite. Aidan O’Brien has been more akin to that pattern over the past 10 years and that is the direction Willie Mullins has been going in. There are two possible reasons for that. Either the Mullins hotpot has a possible Achilles heel or the squad of entries will play the race as a team – like in cycling – to ensure there is pace in the race, or not to benefit the number one player. In this case for the master of Closutton he may look for insurance on the possibility of favourite Kopek Des Bordes boiling over in the prelims with the first time hood being used to prevent that.
I don’t think anyone can argue with the fact he has a serious engine and a massive chance on form, but with that character doubt, the market in this opening event is absolutely made for an each-way play. On the same day KDB won his maiden at Leopardstown, Henry De Bromhead runner WORKAHEAD also broke his hurdling duck in a slightly faster time, having to make his own running. There is little doubt he looked the more fluent hurdler and his handler was adamant he wanted his charge fresh for the Festival, as the yard defends their title following the win of Slade Steel 12 months ago. Of course the favourite has since demoralised his rivals at the Dublin Racing Festival, but that shields the likely probability of the selection also stepping forward in the same manner. To my eye the disparity in prices is too big.
Of the remaining runners, I could easily see KARNIQUET out running his huge odds. Like the favourite, he will don the hood for the first time, which hopefully will allow him to jump with more early fluency. I had him pencilled in for the County Hurdle, but I’ll have an each-way saver on him here.
Tuesday – 17:20 – National Hunt Chase: Hasthing (Each-Way)
The Ultima Handicap Chase comes under my radar for the second value play on day one as I believe it isn’t a great renewal, while I’m sweet on Luker’s Tipple in the Fred Winter at 4.40, this final race on the card is probably one of the most fascinating throughout the four days.
All the recent money has come for Transmission who is tried and tested around here, and had a lovely warm up over hurdles in the Cleeve Hurdle, when he was never asked a question and allowed to saunter home up the hill. A mark of 133 seems fair on what he has achieved so far with the likelihood of more to come stepping up to three and a three quarter miles. However, his price has been blown apart in the last week and I much prefer the odds on offer for Jonjo O’Neill’s charge HASTHING.
He looked out with the washing turning for home at Windsor two outings back, but showed a tremendous attitude and staying power to sail past Tyre Kicker on the run in. The runner-up has since cemented that form, with a closing second to Monbeg Park at Leopardstown, a race incidentally he should have won. The selection will need to fence with more fluency than he did in that win, but apart from a mistake at the fourth, his jumping was much better when a close up fourth to Victtorino at Ascot and his each-way chance is here for all to see with the extra yardage a huge plus.
Wednesday – 16:40 – Grand Annual Handicap Chase: So Scottish
The Coral Cup would normally be my port of call for a Wednesday value bet and Beat The Bat would be the one to interest me, having been crying out for a step up in trip after an eye catching run at Newbury, and I know Harry Fry prefers running him here in preference to the Martin Pipe, but I’m really interested in the Grand Annual this year with the ground as it is.
Top weight JPR One is of interest even off a mark of 156, with the main factor being getting into a rhythm early on, and from there on his class will surely see him play a part in the finish. I fear that Libberty Hunter needs a bit more dig in the ground to step up on his second last year, at 12lbs higher here, while in contrast My Mate Mozzie will relish a sound surface. I can envisage him tanking coming down the hill and then just emptying out after the last. American Mike has been threatening to win a race of this nature since his novice hurdle days with his chase victory over Fact To File still fresh in my memory. But also more relevant is the way he jumped these fences in the Brown Advisory 12 months ago, trying to take a couple by the roots. So in the end, in what looks like a cracking renewal, I have come down on the side of Emmet Mullins’ runner SO SCOTTISH. As per usual this shrewd trainer has been cute with him, running him over two and a half miles last time out over hurdles which he simply doesn’t stay, but was used just to get him fit after running down the field at Fairyhouse over timber.
Heavy ground wasn’t his thing in last year’s County Hurdle and yet he had every chance coming to the second last – and back on a sound surface – I expect he could be one of the big movers the night before. Go back and watch the way he fenced brilliantly in the December Gold Cup of 2023, when still powering on the bridle until getting the fourth last all wrong. He looked sure to hit the frame that day off 141 and this will be only his eighth start over fences here off 139.
Thursday – 16:00 – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle: Ga Law (Each-Way)
I really wanted to put Shanagh Bob in as a bet at around 20/1 for the Final Handicap Hurdle as I think he is chucked in off 131. But at the same time, I think he needs plenty of dig in the ground to show his best. So unless there is an unlikely deluge I have passed him on in favour of this event where the favourite could be vulnerable on good ground.
This category is arguably one of the weakest at the moment in national hunt racing which is most probably the reason for the entry list. On form, Teahupoo is the rightful favourite but championship races are all about the value call – and with respect to Lucky Place (yet to prove he stays this 3m on the New Course), Home On The Lee (back to his best, stumbled at a significant time last year) and Cheltenham specialist Bob Olinger (another yet to prove he stays) I think we could get a huge run out of Jamie Snowden’s charge GA LAW.
Taken out of the Ultima on Sunday, the key to his chance is the ground. The quicker the surface the better his chance is of being placed in the top four. It’s worth remembering he’s only raced three times over timber, all of them on an unfavoured soft or heavy ground. Over this trip he is totally unexposed, but his chase figures give him an outsiders chance and there is little doubt he retains all his ability over fences, judged on his second in the Paddy Power and last time out on unsuitably soft ground in the Denman Chase at Newbury. A placed finish is the aim here, anything more would be a huge bonus.
Friday – 17:20 – Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle: Deep Cave (Each-Way)
Ethical Diamond could be a play in the County Hurdle if the weather stays dry through to the end of the week, and they don’t over water, if he just about remains a playable price.
However, I’m going out on a wholesale betting limb here and backing a horse that I believe will be suited to the make-up of this race. Of course the annoyingly well backed Kopeck De Mee could be the handicap good thing of the meeting and this looks like it will be his port of call, but he more than makes the market for everything else.
Year in and year out, this is a race normally run at one heck of a pace and therefore the ability to see out the extended two and a half miles on the new course is of paramount importance.
Very unlikely to get into the Coral Cup, DEEP CAVE is on the cusp of getting a run here and has run well at this track before, most notably when running back-to-back fifths behind handicap good thing Doyen Quest, and then behind Strackan over three miles. This intermediate trip, at speed on a sound surface, could be his optimum set-up though and a mark of 129 is more than fair based on those two runs at the track. I want to see him ridden with balls of steel out the back and then from the top of the hill pick off his rivals one by one. A placed finish would generate a huge profit here and I will also be putting him in several combination forecasts and tricasts.
Cheltenham Racing Tips
Tuesday – 13:20 – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle: Workahead / Karniqut (Each-Way)
Tuesday – 17:20 – National Hunt Chase: Hasthing (Each-Way)
Wednesday – 16:40 – Grand Annual Handicap Chase: So Scottish
Thursday – 16:00 – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle: Ga Law (Each-Way)
Friday – 17:20 – Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle: Deep Cave (Each-Way)
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
*Paddy Power is now Non Runner Money Back for the 2025 Cheltenham Festival. That means that if your selection does not line up in the race you back it in for any reason – you will now get your stake back. TC’s apply.
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