Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Horse Racing Tips
14:30 Fontwell – Sir Rock
14:40 Hereford – Intimate
15:40 Hereford – Lagonda
15:50 Naas – Will The Wise
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
14:30 Fontwell – Sir Rock
This may only be a 0-100 handicap chase, but the betting shape of it looks well worth a second look, and the first thing you will see is that there are quite a few entries that like to race prominently, which means on this softening ground we could get a real slog even over this intermediate trip (2m5½f) with the stiff uphill finish the added gruel factor. That kind of make-up looks sure to suit the selection Sir Rock.
A winner over this course and distance 11 months ago off a mark of 96, on his initial three runs this term he has finished 7th of 9 with a couple of two pulled up efforts thereafter. However, his wind was found to be the cause of those moderate efforts, and following a corrective operation, the 8yo has since run better than his finishing position suggested when down the field behind Fame and Fun.
Dropped a full 4lbs for that run to 92, I expect him to come forward for that first run for 60 days and following his second breathing procedure after that outing. One of the biggest dangers at a big price could well be top weight Doc McCoy, dropping in grade and now fully 9lbs lower than last time out for Jamie Snowden.
14:40 Hereford – INTIMATE
Good Friday Fairy is the only last-time-out winner in the field and won his last start at Wincanton on the bridle under Sam Twiston-Davies off a rating of 102. However, I think to a certain extent that race fell apart around him that day, with the other joint-favourite Bertie Wooster doing too much too soon, a remark that could also apply to Thunder N Lightnin. That race became a case of the last man standing, and the grey gelding filled that roll perfectly.
He has been upped 8lbs for that run. If the cheekpieces work for a second time, then he could step up, but in my eyes, he will have to do markedly more, and I perceive him to be too close in the weights to my value tip Intimate.
To many, myself included, the Venetia Williams’ trained charge looked for all that he needed a step up in trip following a one-paced effort in a better event at Haydock Park two outings back.
However, that promise at the Merseyside track was mislaid, and the grey gelding patently failed to see out the extra 2½f here last time out. Back down to an extended 2¼m and dropped 2lbs to 112, this looks a much more suitable opportunity against lesser rivals.
15:40 Hereford – LAGONDA
Even in staying events such as this, the geographical make-up of this square-shaped track sees fields go that step quicker than many of the participants would like to go, and those three fences down the far side of the track, although a long way from being the stiffest in the country can readily catch even the slickest of jumpers out.
Top weight Champagnesuperover is still relatively lightly raced for a 10yo and is far from exposed over this trip. However, his fencing has always given a mighty cause for concern. A clear round will see the Olly Murphy runner involved at the finish, but that is improbable based on being unable to finish three of his last six starts over the larger obstacles.
She may not be the biggest price value bet in this week’s column, but Lagonda has solid form around this idiosyncratic track, stays well, won’t mind the softening ground, and a mark of 111 is certainly well within her compass with the fast pace she needs very much in place here.
With Foxboro not the horse he was last season, I have the most respect for Almazhar Garde, who continues to pull out the performances but is more likely to grab yet another silver medal than a gold one.
15:50 Naas – WILL THE WISE
A mark in the region of 128 will probably secure a place in the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final at the Cheltenham Festival. This means that nine of the field in this qualifier will need a significant penalty to run there with a victory here and that a further seven would need to go up by between 10lbs and 18lbs to get in, which is highly unlikely.
Finishing in the top 4 and you could be ‘IN’ will surely only apply to the top three in the weights which kind of puts this race into huge and pretty clear perspective. And on top of that several of those at the head of the weights will not want a hard race so close to the festival on very deep ground.
So what I call the ‘trying’ horses are numbered 4 to 12 in the field and it may well be worth concentrating on that group.
Of those, the most interesting is the Gavin Cromwell runner Will The Wise, who is by far the least exposed and has been building up to this contest for a while. Of course, he also has entries in the Albert Bartlett and Martin Pipe, but based on his probable handicap mark, this could be the pick aim.
His staying on third to Final Demand in a maiden hurdle at Limerick was a cracking run after which he duly landed his maiden hurdle at Punchestown over two and a three quarter miles with ease.
Of the rest of the field, Millstream Lady won with enough in hand at Limerick last time out off 116, but will need more here off 123 in a deeper race, while Harsh is surely way better than his down the field run at Exeter last time out and with the stable catching fire he must be closely watched in the market place.
Sunday Racing Tips
14:30 Fontwell – Sir Rock
14:40 Hereford – Intimate
15:40 Hereford – Lagonda
15:50 Naas – Will The Wise
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at the time of publishing but subject to change.
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