*Paddy Power is now Non Runner Money Back for the 2025 Cheltenham Festival. That means that if your selection does not line up in the race you back it in for any reason – you will now get your stake back. TC’s apply.
The two main factors in a non runner money back bet at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival are, will your selection go to post and have you targeted the right race?
Betting long term ante-post, the Gods need to be very much on my side to have a chance of a return. However with just over five weeks to go before the Cheltenham Festival, Paddy’s Non Runner Money Back guarantee means you can wager with a lot more freedom.
So, having a bet on the Cheltenham Festival before the Dublin Racing Festival this weekend or any of the bigger UK meets in February means trying to grab a bit of value in advance. Plenty of the markets will re-shape themselves, some radically in the coming weeks. Here are five picks I hope to see do that.
PJ’s Cheltenham value Non Runner Money Back plays
Tuesday 11th March, 13:20: Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – Workahead
Wednesday 12th March, 14:50: Coral Cup – Staffordshire Knot
Thursday 13th March, 13:20: Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle – That’s Nice
Thursday 13th March, 16:00: Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle – The Wallpark
Friday 14th March, 15:20: Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle – Mozzies Sister
1. Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle – Mozzies Sister
We don’t have to wait long to put the theory to the test as in Declan Queally’s six-year-old MOZZIES SISTER we could have a gal to go to war with as she stretches out her stamina in Saturday’s opening contest at the Dublin Racing Festival. I am always happy to take on the boys with a good mare in graded races with the 7lbs allowance that they receive.
You may reply that one win from three outings over hurdles is hardly the return of a future Cheltenham Festival winner, but there have been mitigating circumstances against her on all of her timber topping outings, even her maiden success. That victory came over the minimum two miles at Galway on ground only just on the yielding side and can be swiftly upgraded as her jumping was sticky to say the least and it was only her superior engine that got her home up the final climb to beat Whimsy by a half a length.
That form has hardly lit up the racing world with the second and third merely placed since, but the selection has since taken her form to new heights. She was beaten just over five lengths in the Grade Two Navan Novice Hurdle (two and a half miles) where once again her hurdling was less than fluent, but more pertinently her stamina was again not called into play off a very sedate pace.
She was again outpaced in the Grade Two Lyons of Limerick Novice Hurdle over just short of three miles when they went an even slower pace which literally resulted in a three furlong sprint. When the speed was injected she predictably made a crucial mistake at the penultimate flight, before staying on again up the hill to finish a closing second to the well regarded The Big Westerner.
The step up to Grade One company will require a whole lot more, but there appears to be plenty of pace on here with several of the 12 entries having made all this season or raced as pressers and the galloping nature of the track is also in her favour. Of course it goes without saying that the daughter of Arctic Cosmos needs to brush up her jumping, but with that all important 7lbs claim she should be firing on the long run home from the second last. The price on offer with Paddy Power for the Cheltenham three miler could look rather big after Saturday’s opening race at the Dublin Racing festival.
2. Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – Workahead
In theory, you don’t necessarily have to pick the winner of said race at Cheltenham to turn a profit. For example, why back Galopin Des Champs at odds-on in the Cheltenham Gold Cup when you think you have a 25/1 plus outsider in your pocket to hit the frame? It’s all in the math!
I have marked up Salvator Mundi for his win at Punchestown from good marker Kel Histoire. He clearly wanted to go a whole lot quicker and as a result of being stuck in behind horses, didn’t really have a cut at his obstacles. I fancy he will be given his head in the Festival opener.
Romeo Coolio is a likeable sort, but he is where I expect he should be in the betting for what he has achieved. I have already had a cut at Irancy and Navan winner James’s Gate at big odds. The market will once again move following Leopardstown this weekend, but the Christmas meeting threw up Henry De Bromhead’s WORKAHEAD and I’m happy to stay loyal.
Despite last year’s novices coming up short this year, Slade Steel’s success in the Supreme Novices last season, shows that his trainer knows what is required for this contest. The son of Workforce is a likely player at double figure odds. His hurdling was hugely efficient on December 26th as he dealt out a seven length success and more to his 16 rivals following a nice sighter behind Jasmin De Vaux (looked in need of the race) and he will now go straight to the Festival. His time compared very favourably with Kopek Des Bordes on the same card and his high-cruising speed and swift jumping, will be a huge asset on the Old Course at Cheltenham.
3. Coral Cup – Staffordshire Knot
This is my one hugely left-of-centre entry and I have to admit I have no idea which race this seven-year-old STAFFORDSHIRE KNOTT will run in at Cheltenham – if at all. Gordon Elliott loves to throw the kitchen sink at these two big handicap hurdles (the Coral Cup & the Pertemps Final) and his charge looks made to measure for both. On deep ground the shorter Coral Cup will possibly be his domain (NRMB odds quoted below), on better ground three miles will be his optimum set-up.
Elliott has landed the Coral Cup three times since 2011 and although not as highly rated as his 2022 winner Commander of Fleet, he looks a similar sort. That victory of course came in a vintage renewal with Fastorslow running him to a short head in a rain storm and Staffordshire Knot may not have to be quite as good.
His stand-out piece of form last season came when he ran Brighterdaysahead to seven lengths in the Grade One Mersey Novices Hurdle, in what amounted to an insufficient test of stamina. The bay gelding didn’t take to fences on his first two starts this season, but back over hurdles he was a huge eye-catcher when a staying on fifth of 20 to Win Some Lose Some over three miles off a mark of 135 at Leopardstown.
For some reason he didn’t duplicate that form when sent over to Huntingdon, jumping poorly from the first flight. But I am happy to forgive that run around that sharp track. With only seven starts over hurdles under his belt, if you ignore that last run, he looks the type to be suited by the big field hurly burly of one of these races. Like his former stablemate, I fancy he can outrun his likely huge price if turning up. If he doesn’t – of course you will get your money back!
4. Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle – That’s Nice
The unbeaten Maughreen obviously makes the market for this event and there was certainly plenty to like about her hurdling debut at Punchestown this week, when she gradually warmed to the task with her motor – rather than her jumping – enabling her to record a five-length success. Like most of the Clossuton novices she made every yard a winning one, which is no bad tactic as it means a clear sighter of your obstacles and no unwanted debris falling back on you late on.
She will obviously take another step forward, but I am quite happy to let her win at that price she is now. If anything Sixandahalf’s winning debut at Fairyhouse was a deal more impressive and Spring ground would be of no consequence to her, while Jubilee Alpha and Just A Rose have form on the board to make them of interest in what looks a deep race this year.
But I would rather have a more experienced mare in my quarter and, even though Nicky Henderson has several strings to his bow here, I think the daughter of the great Walk In The Park, THAT’S NICE, smacks of each-way value. If you can forgive her second run at Cheltenham when she was clearly not herself, her two wins either side at Warwick look solid.
On her first start she readily saw off Honky Tonk Highway and the Skelton charge has since won at Listed level while her success over Miss Cynthia was achieved with the minimum of fuss despite a bad mistake early on. A really athletic mare there will have to be more in the locker to step up here, but I think there is plenty left under the bonnet and her relative experience is a huge asset.
5. Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle – The Wallpark
It has been well documented that this year’s renewal is hardly a vintage one which explains why last year’s hero, Teahupoo, is a shade of odds-against with Paddy Power to double up. There are then huge question marks about several horses just behind him in the market place but THE WALLPARK, this stoutly bred son of Ask, is one of very few entered to have a lovely looking progressive profile.
A two and a half length success over that solid yardstick Gowel Road in October off 145, despite trouble in running, was a step up on his two previous wins at Galway off ratings of 137 and 144 and then in defeat in the Howden Long Walk Hurdle behind Crambo he took his form to the next level.
On that occasion he looked set to finish out with the washing as they made their way out of Swinley Bottom, but he began to bridge the gap from three out and nothing was finishing stronger than him on the run in. I estimated that he came from 26 lengths off the pace with six furlongs to run and yet was only beaten three and a half lengths on the line.
I suspect there could be plenty more progression left when he gets a proper test again at Cheltenham (the New Course will help, as will any give in the ground) and I am hopeful he can bridge the gap with the champion who to my eyes is not the strongest stayer at the trip.
Cheltenham antepost betting tips
Tuesday 11th March, 13:20: Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – Workahead
Wednesday 12th March, 14:50: Coral Cup – Staffordshire Knot
Thursday 13th March, 13:20: Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle – That’s Nice
Thursday 13th March, 16:00: Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle – The Wallpark
Friday 14th March, 15:20: Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle – Mozzies Sister
**Paddy Power is now Non Runner Money Back for the 2025 Cheltenham Festival. That means that if your selection does not line up in the race you back it in for any reason – you will now get your stake back. TC’s apply.
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