Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Horse Racing tips
13:00 Naas – Canal End
14:20 Fontwell – Summer In Milan
15:30 Naas – On The Steel
15:50 Fontwell – Gold Clermont
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
13:00 Naas – Canal End
I suspect most of you reading this column will readily bypass this opening contest at the Tipper Road track as being too difficult to dissect with plenty of slow coaches set to line up. The market will quite rightly revolve around Individualiste, winner of a beginner’s chase and a handicap off 111. Set to carry a massive 10lbs penalty here, he is obviously one of the most reliable, but having viewed those last two runs, the seven-year-old is quite clearly a strong stayer, racing prominently on both occasions and then slugging it out from the third and second last fences respectively, galloping on without quickening. But his attendance here makes the market for us and several can be given a chance against him at the weights. It’s a scenario that Buachaillbocht also falls into as he was a desperately slow stayer over hurdles and has shown no aptitude for chasing.
That means the nod goes to CANAL END in those same famous green and gold colours having been spotted by me in a couple of races under the ‘eyecatcher’ status. On all three starts over fences he has been well beaten, and not jumped with much aplomb, but he has not been suited to running right handed at Punchestown so going this way around will be a plus. Mark Walsh has chosen to ride him and having run well, just off the placed horses in Listed handicap hurdles last year off marks in the mid 120’s, if he gets his jumping together and the ground is a wee bit deeper – I fancy he could be a real springer in the market.
14:20 Fontwell – Summer In Milan
For hurdlers rated up to 105 there is plenty of chaff amongst limited numbers of wheat here and stamina as much as clean jumping will be a huge asset as they come up the home stretch for the final time over an underestimated stamina sapping hill at the Arundel track. Since going chasing, Shuil Ceoil has been a huge disappointment, with a seven length fifth the closest he has finished to the gold medallist. His last win over hurdles was off 97 (placed off 103) and he gets a chance to run off just 96 here returning to timber topping. Chankaya has needed his first two starts, and will almost certain be at peak racing fitness for his third start, but I’m just worried the handicapper still has him in his pocket. I make those two players the biggest dangers to the Chris Gordon charge SUMMER IN MILAN. One of only two in the race with room to improve, at first glance you would look at his recent form in a handicap hurdle here on December 10th and suggest he has no chance. But look back at that race again and he had every chance off the bottom bend before being outpaced.
As his breeding would suggest, by Milan, he has been crying out for a test of stamina. That view can be backed up by his staying on effort on his sole point-to-point start and then on his bumper effort over 2m3f at Cork. Since then, he has raced mainly over the minimum trip, which is too sharp for him, and the only time he has run over 2m3f there is little doubt he showed promise behind Super Sabre here in October. This step up in trip is desperately needed and a handicap mark of 97 looks very fair.
15:30 Naas – On The Steel
This big field, 17-runner handicap hurdle over an extended two and a quarter miles is right up my street and after much deliberation and form research I managed to get the final short list down to four. Of that quartet, with his amateur jockey taking 7lbs off, Court Cave has to be a huge player after stepping up after a three month break with a cracking second to what I considered a handicap good thing, The Giant Haystacks, at Leopardstown under today’s rider. A 4lbs penalty for finishing second there was a fair enough reaction from the handicapper and the top weight has seriously solid claims here. Ishan is nicely in on some of his form from last season, when he won races off 91 and 104. A mark of 109 asks a bit more, and an extra quarter of a mile at least would be much more beneficial, so I will leave him alone until he gets a stiffer test of stamina, while Tyson possibly wants better ground than this.
So in the end I came down on the side of the Conor O’Dwyer charge ON THE STEEL. There was one other runner that has more solid claims, but this six-year-old will be at least three times the price, and sometimes you just have to take a chance on relative value. A single win from five outings came over an extended 2m1f in a maiden hurdle at Ballinrobe and since then he has raced four times, pulled up twice and not got to within 31 lengths of the winner on the two other starts, so why then am I putting him up here? Well, if you look closer at this last run over two and a half miles at Punchestown, he raced with more enthusiasm and jumped way better for seven eighths of the race. Still holding a chance in the last two flights, Conor eased him down considerably when his chance had gone, dropping back to the minimum trip will suit and a 2lbs lower mark could see him readily outrun his likely massive odds.
15:50 Fontwell – Gold Clermont
This the kind of mid-range handicap chase that I’m normally wary of with plenty of inconsistent sorts set to line up in an eight race field. On the flip side if all the entries line up it also represents an each-way play which could offer huge value.
With plenty more rain forecast this could turn into a slog over this an 27 furlongs and I will be surprised if more than half the field finish the course. Furthermore with five of the field proven front runners/pressers this could prove to be a case of last horse standing. That in turn would play into the hands of the top weight Grove Road, who despite being raised some 3lbs to 101, remains well handicapped on previous form. However, the question mark has to be the likely deep ground and I much prefer the claims of GOLD CLERMONT. Winner of this race last year off a mark of 107, but three runs this season has been underwhelming to say the least. The handicapper has at least eased him 2lbs for that poor run at Fakenham, when he was never going well from the start, and was pulled up a long way from home. However, these are his conditions and a repeat of his run 12 months ago would probably be too good for the likes of the top weight and further down the list, Record High, who ran well here last time out.
Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Horse Racing tips
13:00 Naas – Canal End
14:20 Fontwell – Summer In Milan
15:30 Naas – On The Steel
15:50 Fontwell – Gold Clermont
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at the time of publishing but subject to change.
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