Horse Racing Tips: Paul Jacobs’ 4 value plays across the tracks on Sunday

PJ is back on Sunday duty with his best plays from Huntingdon, Kelso, and Cork.

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By / Horse Racing Tips / 1 month ago

Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Racing Tips

12:43 Huntingdon – Diamond Dice
13:30 Kelso – Forged Well
14:05 Kelso – Raceview Road
14:50 Cork – Aine’s Lad

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

12:43 Huntingdon – Diamond Dice

I am still trying to get the hang of the lightly-weighted, disappointing Opera King, who should be perfectly capable of winning off a mark of 97. But when he looks like a gold medal is around the corner, he throws in an absolute stinker as he did at Hereford last time. Although I could be wrong, I reckon his trainer is probably tearing his hair out over him as well!

Orchestra won nicely over the course and distance last time out, and to be fair, despite being hiked up a grade, this is hardly a much stronger affair, and softer ground won’t be a problem. Bread and Butter has been shrewdly campaigned by Olly Murphy, winning off 95 and 99 and bids for the hat-trick off 100, but the better ground could be his port of call. While Aggagio has run too free on his last two starts, the handicapper has given him a chance if he settles better today.

However, with so many question marks on what will be softening ground about several of these, I suspect this could cut up dramatically; the top-weight DIAMOND DICE must be the call here.

He ran well in several soft ground novice hurdles last year, winning a maiden hurdle at Ludlow, and his two runs in better class at Aintree and Market Rasen on a faster surface suggest he should go pretty close here, giving weight away all round. He is set to run off a significantly lower mark here, with Benjamin Macy taking over from Jonjo O’Neill with 10lbs off his back for good measure.

13:30 Kelso – Forged Well

This is a handicap hurdle with plenty of pace on from several entries. Although conditions will determine a slightly more cautious approach from several of them, I anticipate this will still be a test at the trip. Lunar Chief was a game-winner over the course and distance in a novice hurdle last time out and has to be respected.

He is set to make his handicap debut off a mark of 113, which looks fair enough, while Young Jack (needed his return) and Follow Charlie could each run well, the latter 7lbs lower than last time at Ayr, with Ben Smith taking 7lbs off his back.

But all of them could be vulnerable to FORGED WELL. A five-year-old with very few miles on the lock, Martin Todhunter’s charge kept answering the calls of Sean Quinlan when landing a 2m5f handicap here last time out on good to soft ground when he only really found his stride in the final 175 yards.

A 4 lb penalty is probably about right for that narrow success. The third finished five and a half lengths away, but this deeper ground will be perfect for him. If, as I expect, they go at a pace, his guaranteed stamina will come into play big time when turning for home.

14:05 Kelso – Raceview Road

With the forecast rains set to hit the track, as is traditionally the case, this will be yet another stamina-sapping renewal of the Borders National, and it could be a case of last horse standing as the field makes their way up the long run in for the final time. Last year’s winner, Flower of Scotland, has got herself nicely handicapped in time for the defence of her title, won off 114 and is now down to 107.

She nearly always comes on for her seasonal debut and has been well-supported over the past 48 hours to retain her title. Dropped to a mark of 128, the well-regarded Your Own Story was pulled up in the same race the mare finished fifth in at Carlisle (Jet Legs sixth), but that run was too bad to be true. Lucinda Russell has stuck the cheekpieces on him for the first time here, and the handicapper has dropped the eight-year-old to a fair mark of 128.

But they may all be vulnerable to the lightly weighted RACEVIEW ROAD, who, to my eyes, has been crying out for a deep test of stamina. Indeed, the six-year-old hasn’t been the most fluent of jumpers in just the four starts of fences, but he is gradually getting the hang of things up to an extended three miles, and this step up in trip will put less pressure on his fencing in the anticipated deep ground.

I thought that he was a massive eye-catcher behind Similar Story here two outings back, making several niggly mistakes before flying up the long run for home to be beaten a never nearer third and has since run an even better race over the searching three miles at Carlisle. There should be a whole lot more to come in this setup.

14:50 Cork – Aine’s Lad

Of the several graded races on the card at the Mallow track, Hilly Way looks like a cracking renewal. The lightly raced Ferny Hollow is arguably the most talented horse on show and, for that matter, possibly in the yard. Desperately hard to keep sound, should he win today and get to the start at Cheltenham, the nine-year-old could be a genuine Champion Chase player and he has a fabulous record fresh.

However, for value betting purposes, this big field two-and-a-half mile handicap hurdle looks a lot more up my punting street. After much deliberation, I finally managed to get my shortlist down to four. Young Lucy ran a race full of promise at Cheltenham last time and certainly won’t mind these softer conditions, while Johnny Blue and top-weight Killaney King are both respected for their powerful yards at this level. The last named has always been well regarded by his astute handler, and a move in the marketplace should be noted for him.

But at a double figure price, I am keen on the lightly raced AINE’S LAD. Three miles at the back end of last year looked a shade too far for the son of Kalanisi and he looked badly in need of the run after blowing up between three and two out and subsequently making a bad mistake on his seasonal debut at Navan. This trip should suit them so much better, and I expect the five-year-old to take a big step forward here, as, indeed, he must do to be involved.

Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Racing Tips

12:43 Huntingdon – Diamond Dice
13:30 Kelso – Forged Well
14:05 Kelso – Raceview Road
14:50 Cork – Aine’s Lad

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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