Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Racing Tips
14:25 The Curragh – Earls
15:15 Cork – Positive Thinker
15:23 Carlisle – Snipe
15:43 Huntingdon – Aldsworth
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
14:25 The Curragh – Earls
Rhythm King is the one entry that is hard to weigh up, having won out of nowhere at Galway last time out, and with some ease as well. His trainer Mark Fahey put his victory down to dropping in the weights, and that he has plenty of ability, but is also difficult to train. A 9lbs penalty puts him back up to his recent marks, but he could well double up here now his handler may have found the unknown key to him, and is rightly respected. Indigo Five continues to churn out the performances, while top weight Titanium finally got the end-to-end gallop he needs, when flying through from the rear to win last time out at Leopardstown on October 20th.
But this column is all about finding the ‘value’ alternatives and that criteria leads me towards to Gavin Cromwell’s charge EARLS. Despite his strike rate going down recently (had a winner on October 30th), I’m willing to bet this seven-year-old is set to put up a seasonal best here, having fallen from a mark of 92 in May, down to his current rating of 84. Like Titanium, his best form has come when the son of Dream Ahead is towed into a race with plenty of pace, and there have been glimpses recently that he retains most of his considerable ability – notably when fifth of eight at Haydock. I think you can readily ignore his last effort at Naas, as he raced too freely and that is not his style of racing.
15:15 Cork – Positive Thinker
Is it too late in the day for Streets of Doyen to land one of these ‘Nationals’? Possibly not, especially as he’s now rated 125, and Alex Harvey takes another 5lbs off his back. He only got as far as the 8th fence in the Pardubicka, so hopefully no harm done, but the fact remains his record over fences is one from 16. The good ground will suit, but you have to be his most loyal of betting servants to go in again. Suffice to say, I will be gutted if he goes close here, but the percentage call is to oppose him.
Gordon Elliott has three of the 14 runners (top three weights) and the best of the trio could be So Des Flos on his seasonal debut. However, his record fresh isn’t fabulous and I would rather look further down the list. Outside The Door is on a hat-trick after wins at Wexford and Fairyhouse (hurdles) and has been aimed specifically at this prize by Padraig Roche and has claims up in grade. However, POSITIVEE THINKER looks absolutely made to measure for this event. To my eyes he will stay four miles standing on his head, and had a lovely comeback when a staying on third over hurdles at Roscommon. His second in last year’s Leinster National was a cracking run and my only concern is the drying ground. However, if connections feel it will compromise his chance they will pull him and no damage done.
15:23 Carlisle – Snipe
All eyes will be on the Listed Mares Novices Chase (2.53) and the Colin Parker Memorial (1.48) at the Cumbrian track as Dan Skelton bids to extend his early lead in the Trainer’s Championship in these two £40k races. However, I couldn’t find a betting angle there and this stamina sapping extended three and a quarter mile chase fits the bill better, despite the anticipated drying ground.
Following a fallow year last term, Iron Bridge starts his season off a very fair mark of 136 and it’s worth remembering this is only his 11th chase start and his 14th under rules as he remains a young horse with unfulfilled potential. I suspect Jonjo O’Neill won’t have him ready to roll at 100% first time out and the Welsh National could be his main port of call for the first half of the season. Runner-up in the Tim Molony and sixth in the 2023 Scottish National, Your Own Story was laid off for a year, and came back in March with three second places. He remains another work in progress and is in the same camp as the top weight in that he could feasibly take a step forward this term.
However, both will do well to extend SNIPE – coming from the all conquering Skelton yard. Many of you will question him being a ‘value’ bet, yet on occasions a horse at the top of the market can still represent that title, and with most of his rivals not race fit and with him having a recent run under his belt here, this is a massive chance for the seven-year-old to land a gold medal early doors after a promising run over three miles here 17 days ago. On that occasion he looked as though he was crying out for a deeper test, Also unlike many of his rivals he will not be inconvenienced by the drying conditions.
15:43 Wincanton – Aldsworth
This is arguably the best betting event of the day with Lucky Rose, Horizon D’Or and Newtonian all likely to have supporters in a huge field. Of that trio, the second may come out on top, but time again his somewhat slipshod jumping has been a weakness. A clear round should see the bay gelding placed at the very least. Breganza Boy returns to hurdling after not spotting a fence in two outings and could bounce back in a race with little strength in depth.
Down 17lbs in the ratings, Time To Tinker could run well at a price, if he retains the majority of his ability, as 2m 5f was obviously too short last time out.
But the vote goes to Robbie Llewellyn’s charge ALDSWORTH, lightly raced and open to improvement with blinkers on the for the first time. He ran two cracking races here, and at Hereford, at the back end of last year before the deep, clawing ground did for him at Wincanton. His record fresh is mixed, but he remains at least one of the entries with room to improve, and if his trainer has him ready first time out I can see him going through this race with his usual enthusiasm on a surface that suits.
Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Racing Tips
14:25 The Curragh – Earls
15:15 Cork – Positive Thinker
15:23 Carlisle – Snipe
15:43 Huntingdon – Aldsworth
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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