Joe Logue’s Saturday Breeders Cup tips
19:41 Believing (each-way)
20:21 Thorpedo Anna
21:01 Far Bridge (each-way)
21:41 Fierceness & Arthurs Ride
22:25 Content
23:05 Straight No Chaser (NAP)
23:45 Porta Fortuna
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
19:41 Believing (each-way)
Last year’s winner Big Evs has a desperate draw in stall 11. So has Bradsell in stall 12. BELIEVING could struggle from stall one, but at least Ryan Moore’s being back on board is a big plus, and her third in the Prix de l’Abbaye underlined her consistency this season. Should be among the places at least.
20:21 Thorpedo Anna
THORPEDO ANNA is a s close to a racing certainty as you’ll get in my eyes and she’s been the standout filly in the US this year. She’s won four Group 1s runs including the Kentucky Oaks and the American Oaks.
She has only been beaten once this year when she raced against the boys in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga. That was by a leading Breeders’ Cup Classic contender in Fierceness.
Back against her own sex now, it’s almost impossible to see her beaten.
21:01 Far Bridge (each-way)
We step up to 1m 4f on the Turf for the Breeders’ Cup Turf, and while it feels a little bit strange going against the UK and Irish runners, Far Bridge jumps out as a leading contender at a big price.
His form is strong, and on figures, he should be bang there as he’s really taken a step forward in his last two starts. With question marks over some, like Luxembourg and Emily Upjohn, towards the head of the market, FAR BRIDGE is a cracking each-way price.
21:41 Fierceness & Arthurs Ride
This race revolves around Ballydoyle’s City Of Troy. There are plenty of unknowns here, such as whether he will act on the surface or break quickly enough to get to the lead from stall three. He would need to break quicker than he has before to get the lead.
The big issue is that if he doesn’t get the lead, he will be getting a lot of kickback, and that’s not something he’s used to. We don’t know how he will handle that either. It’s all about price as he is very short at the moment.
There are only two in this field – FIERCENESS & ARTHURS RIDE – who are running to a winning level on dirt.
Fierceness won the Florida Derby before bombing out in the Kentucky Derby when sent off favourite. They gave him time off, and he won the Jim Dandy Stakes beating Sierra Leone, who reopposes.
The standout performance was beating Thorpedo Anna last time in the Travers Stakes. He showed that day he wasn’t soft and has the battle needed to win a race like this. A stall 9 draw will be fine for him as he likes to track the pace and travel on the outer of the pack, stalking the pace until the jockey tells him to ‘go’.
Arthur’s Ride has been overlooked massively, and that’s down to a shocking run at Saratoga. He was running and competing in run-of-the-mill races before winning very impressively in the Whitney Stakes at Saratoga beating some very fancied runners.
He was sent off the odds-on favourite in the Jockey Gold Cup Stakes and finished fifth. No excuse was given, and I don’t think there was one. It was just one of those performances where the horse just runs flat with no obvious reason why. I’ve backed him at 25/1 each-way as he is worth forgiving and taking a chance on.
Horses racing in the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar
22:25 Content
Ylang Ylang was scratched so Ryan Moore swaps to stablemate CONTENT. She would have been my choice of the two anyway. She’s a lot more consistent than Ylang Ylang, and the soft ground at Longchamp and Ascot counted against her the last twice in Group 1 races.
She wants good to firm ground and from a stall seven draw and Ryan Moore aboard has a huge chance. This looks like a weak and open race and she has a huge chance in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf.
23:05 Straight No Chaser (NAP)
STRAIGHT NO CHASER is my NAP on the night. He has a patchy profile and won a Grade 3 in Pimlico before bombing out as favourite next time.
He missed the whole summer but made an electric return winning the Santa Anita Sprint Championship last time by nearly seven lengths. He recorded a ‘Beyer speed figure’ of 104 in that victory and now steps up in grade for the first time but looks more than capable of winning.
His recent work has been the exception, and he clocked 47 secs over four furlongs recently. He’s all raw speed.
23:45 Porta Fortuna
The Breeders’ Cup Mile brings the curtain down on the night, and PORTA FORTUNA was second in the Juvenile fillies last year when only beaten half a length in a race connections felt they should have won.
Similarly, she probably was unlucky in the 1,000 Guineas but has been very impressive since, winning the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, the Falmouth and Matron Stakes in the UK and Ireland.
Stall 7 won’t ruin her chances by any means. A fast 1m will definitely suit Ramatuelle who looks like she barely stays 1m in France, but this is a speed track and will suit her.
Diego Velazquez has been very good since dropping back to 1m, but I don’t think he is good enough to win this. She should make her presence felt against the likes of Notable Speech, who has a leading chance – getting the mares’ allowance.
Joe Logue’s Saturday Breeders Cup tips
19:41 Believing (each-way)
20:21 Thorpedo Anna
21:01 Far Bridge (each-way)
21:41 Fierceness & Arthurs Ride
22:25 Content
23:05 Straight No Chaser (NAP)
23:45 Porta Fortuna
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at the time of publishing but subject to change.
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