Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Racing Tips
13:02 Wincanton – Liverpool Knight
13:50 Aintree – Unexpected Party (Each-Way)
14:35 Galway – Howya Luveen
15:15 Wincanton – Found On
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
13:02 Wincanton – Liverpool Knight
This opening conditional jockeys handicap hurdle won’t be on the betting profile of many of you as you probably seek an interest more at Aintree and Galway this afternoon, but it should be.
Nine runners are set to go to post for this Class 4 affair, but there is plenty of strength in depth. Of course the profile of Reach For The Moon is a fascinating one after having high hopes on the flat when trained by John Gosden, but after being a likely group performer in that sphere, he was gelded and ran to two very poor ratings in handicap company. Two back-to-back wins over timber at Worcester and Fontwell are certainly a change in the right direction and his speed around a track like this will always be an asset (the severe uphill finish at the Sussex track nearly found him out) and he’s a danger if taking another step forward on his handicap debut.
However, he could well set this up nicely for top weight LIVERPOOL KNIGHT, a winner of a Class 2 at Market Rasen this time last year off a mark of 116 after which he suffered three consecutive defeats over two and a half miles. The drop back in trip, allied to running in a Class 4 event, giving weight away to less talented horses on his preferred good ground is also a plus. With Fern O’Brien taking 6lbs off his back, he is down to a rating of just 113 and that is just too good a level to pass up in an easier race. Of the remaining rivals, the well regarded French import Pyrotechnic is interesting if ready after a 312-day break.
13:50 Aintree – Unexpected Party (Each-Way)
Sometimes in small field races it’s not always the highest rated horses that come to the fore, remember the old adage ‘ outsider of three’ four or even five! And that kind of thinking can sometimes be enhanced when the make-up of a small field is clear. In this year’s renewal of the Virgin Bet Old Roan Chase, we have an out-and-out front runner in Stage Star (clear top rated on my private figures by 5 points) and three of the other four runners also like to race prominently. Of course those theoretical views can go out of the window on race day, but I think we can say we will get a well run contest. Stage Star is undoubtedly the rightful favourite, and if he gets into a rhythm around this tight track, his outstanding record when fresh is another big plus point.
So although he’s bottom on my ratings I fancy a huge run from Dan Skelton’s runner UNEXPECTED PARTY as long as Harry has the balls to keep his partner off the pace and not be tempted to race as a presser. Of course, if the market leader puts in a clear round, then I fully expect SS to win, but the selection has a fair record and was way too keen when behind him when beaten 17.5 lengths in the 2023 Paddy Power Gold Cup. I have backed him each-way at a big price and will have a straight forecast with the market leader as well.
14:35 Galway – Howya Luveen
This intermediate distance handicap chase at the River Corrib track is probably the most interesting betting event of the day with a massive field of 18 set to go to post and many of them racing over fences for the first time in public. However, there is plenty of chaff amongst the wheat here, and after much study and self debate, I managed to get this down to just the four runners. A Great Buzz is interesting on his chasing debut, after he looked quite progressive last time over hurdles. He was the centre of a big gamble in April at Down Royal, but early interference seemed to put him of the job in hand, and he dropped right away after a brief move from three out. There is little doubt he is way better than that run suggests and he is bred to perhaps excel over the larger obstacles. If there is money in the market place I may well have a saver in him, while Doonbeg Don, another beaten favourite last time out, is also respected.
Aodham May has the advantage of seven chase runs under his belt, and he has improved radically since he last ran in this sphere, with four wins over hurdles off a highest mark of 109. However, I am going to a bit left of centre by tipping a daughter of Yeats in HOWYA LUVEEN. She has plenty of experience in point-to-points, winning two of her six starts, and although she hasn’t really shown much in four starts under rules, the mare finally reverts to a trip which may suit her better with a guaranteed pace on. A mark of 99 seems quite fair, and unlike many of her rivals, she will strip tight fit for this and it wouldn’t surprise me if she is a big market mover.
15:15 Wincanton – Found On
Credo landed this contest 12 months ago, off a 5lbs lower mark and on much softer ground, and remains relatively unexposed over fences. However, I fancy unless there is an unexpected deluge, he will not find this a stiff enough test of stamina having finished fourth in a Warwick Classic (soft going and well behind My Silver Lining) and third in a Tommy Whittle (heavy) so I will save him for a punt later on in mid-winter and this may be his warm up for the Welsh National at Chepstow. Top weight Remastered is not the horse he once was, while No Hubs No Hoobs needs a career best by some way, up to a rating of 124. With My Silver Lining also needing deeper ground and a career best, this can go to another mare.
Nine-year-old FOUND ON ran two solid races in 2023, but then jumped poorly on just the two outings last season, when pulled up on both occasions. The five races she won in 2022 weren’t deep affairs, but a mark of her performances have always been rounds of good jumping, which will stand her in good stead. She previously won first time up on her seasonal debut three times, has few miles on the clock, and will relish the good ground. I think she has more to offer being up to Listed level and she can get the vote over Nicky Henderson’s Quick Draw, another who pulled up last time out, after making good progress through the first part of 2023.
Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Racing Tips
13:02 Wincanton – Liverpool Knight
13:50 Aintree – Unexpected Party (Each-Way)
14:35 Galway – Howya Luveen
15:15 Wincanton – Found On
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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