Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Racing Tips
13:55 Tipperary –Vasda
14:05 Longchamp – Kerdos
14:30 Tipperary – Power Under Me
15:20 Longchamp – Sunway (each-way)
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
13:55 Tipperary – Vasda
If top-weight Fleetfoot is anywhere near the form he showed as a juvenile (two lengths off Prix de l’Arc hopeful Al Riffa), he could readily defy his top weight and rating of 90 here. But he has only made one appearance this season, wilted late on after racing prominently at the Curragh, and has only been dropped 1lb for that run. Any money for him in the marketplace would be interesting. However, the percentage call may be VASDA. She has begun to find her feet since coming from France to join Joseph O’Brien. She was a real eye-catcher when running on strongly over seven and a half furlongs at Roscommon last time.
step up to nine furlongs looks perfect and she can take advantage of a drop of 4lbs in the weights since then. Old Casanova can still run well off a rating in the mid-80s, while Camelot Alexander is surely better than her run at Gowran Park last time out when she fell out of the starting stalls.
14:05 Longchamp – Kerdos
A good ground, Prix l’Abbaye, is something we rarely see, so the real speedsters will be licking their lips, and those drawn low will also be advantaged. Unbeaten in three races this season, Bradsell is the rightful favourite and stall nine could be worse, so he is the most likely winner. If Hollie Doyle can get a good sit early on, he has to be the one to beat.
Makarova has been in great form this year for Ed Walker, but his astute trainer will be frustrated by the drying forecast, so if you are looking for a value play, then KERDOS could be the one. Only beaten two and a half lengths by Highfield Princess last year, he has 5lbs to find on my private ratings, but his draw in three is a huge plus and the drying ground is a mighty one for this son of Profitable which goes against many of that sire’s offspring. Of the remainder, both Starlust and Washington Heights may outrun their respective prices.
14:30 Tipperary – Power Under Me
Many of these have tried their hand at Group level, but haven’t made their mark, so this is a nice Listed prize to go for with some good money up for grabs.
I was first drawn towards Mammas Girl, who has been plying her trade a little above this level. She may have been slightly flattered by her three-and-a-quarter length sixth of nine behind Porta Fortuna in the Matron last month, but a literal reading of that form makes her a player. Red Viburnum remains thoroughly unexposed, and her juvenile form is strong, but I was disappointed by her run in the Brownstown Stakes at Leopardstown last time; so the call is POWER UNDER ME. A mile always seemed to stretch this son of Mehmas in the past, so the drop back to 7f with a big field and plenty of prominent runners should suit him perfectly. If he can relax and get a nice tow through the race, his turn of pace could prove conclusive late on.
15:20 Longchamp – Sunway (each-way)
I love to have an ante-post bet on the ‘Arc’ and Ace Impact was my 10/1 pick last year, with Sakhee my all-time best play at 33/1 when he won under Frankie at 11/5 fav in 2001 – and note he was drawn in the car park in stall 15!
But such is the history of this race that a lightly-raced ‘autumn’ horse can always come from left field to win and usurp the market leaders, many of whom have been on the go since early spring. Also, this always used to be a race favouring a late-maturing filly, but that kind of result has seemingly gone out of fashion since the days of Treve and Enable. Many pundits have said this year’s three-year-old crop, bar City of Troy, is in the ordinary category. But, Look De Vega’s French Derby win has worked out nicely, Ghostwriter and Sunway having boosted the form, and via both horses, Los Angeles is probably on a par at the very least with that duo.
However, in a fast run race, or at least quicker than the Prix Niel dawdle (which won’t be hard), the Chantilly hero will be pushed to stay this trip better than his old rivals, Sosie and Delius. The former keeps taking the proper steps forward, as he has been upped in trip, and there has to be more to come. On the same timeline, Delius has been progressive in every race this season, and has been crying out for a test at this trip, which he is likely to get here. The son of Frankel is more of a galloper than a quickener and if you look at his previous two races, he held his head at an awkward angle under pressure, yet to be fair, he kept on galloping through the line. Any rain would help on Sunday, but this will be far from a traditional Arc mud bath. The drying ground supports any number of these and certainly would not count against Sosie.
I thought Continuous was unlucky last year. I’m not sure he would have beaten Ace Impact, but with a clear passage, he would have been second, and for many, he will be the each-way play at around 25/1. Shin Emperor will hugely appreciate the drying ground. The way he raced in the Irish Champion Stakes last time out, he has every chance of seeing out the trip. The only negative being his draw in box 11.
Los Angeles is a big brute of a horse and was always going to improve physically month after month this year. Like Delius, he is a lengthener and will benefit from a real end-to-end gallop, which would neutralise his stall 10 draw. He is rightfully respected.
The Prix Vermeille form of Bluestocking and Adventure is as good as anything on offer here, but being only three parts of a length behind Los Angeles in the Irish Derby, I cannot understand why SUNWAY (each-way) is a much bigger price than the O’Brien horse. Yes, the draw in 15 is a negative, but a fast-run race may see him pass plenty of tiring horses on the home stretch.
As this is a ‘Value Plays’ column, I will back him to hit the fore at the sharp end. Sosie is my most likely winner, but Sunway is the best value play.
Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Racing Tips
13:55 Tipperary –Vasda
14:05 Longchamp – Kerdos
14:30 Tipperary – Power Under Me
15:20 Longchamp – Sunway (each-way)
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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