City Of Troy is bidding to become the first horse since Golden Horn in 2015 to win the Derby and Eclipse in the same season.
The Justify colt shrugged off his 2000 Guineas flop by storming to Classic glory at Epsom last month and is the red-hot favourite with Paddy Power to land the Group 1 feature at Sandown on Saturday.
Despite being one of the highlights of the Flat fixture list in Britain, it looks far from a vintage renewal of the Eclipse on paper, although a big performance will be expected from City Of Troy.
Eclipse odds can be found on the Paddy Power website and Paddy Power app, otherwise key historical trends from the last 10 renewals and a tip based off the big-race stats are below.
Eclipse trends
AGE
The Classic generation appear to have the edge in the Eclipse because six of the last 10 winners – including the last three in a row – were three years of age. It is worth noting that the younger horses receive a weight-for-age allowance against the older rivals.
COURSE FORM
A previous appearance at Sandown could be considered a negative because only two winners – Mukhadram (2014) and Ulysses (2017) – had already raced at the track.
DISTANCE FORM
A potential grey area for City Of Troy is the fact that nine winners since 2014 had at least one previous run over 10 furlongs, although last year’s hero, Paddington, successfully overcame this trend. Dancing Gemini has also never attempted the trip.
To further build on this statistic, eight of the nine boasted at least one victory over 1m2f.
FLAT FORM
At least six previous outings on the level is a trend set by nine winners, with the exception being the unbeaten at the time Golden Horn (2015). The Eclipse will be City Of Troy’s sixth race under rules.
GROUP FORM
A previous victory at Group level is critical. Six winners had already scored at Group 1 level, two had achieved success in a Group 2, while the other two were Group 3 scorers.
LAST TIME OUT
It’s important to head into the Eclipse in winning form as seven winners – including the last five in a row – were successful last time out. Apart from Enable (2019), every winner had their last run within the previous 35 days.
ODDS
The Eclipse is a race skewed towards the market leaders as eight winners could be found in the top two of Paddy Power’s betting, while just one horse has scored at a double-digit price.
RATING
It takes a quality animal to scoop the top prize at Sandown because nine winners were rated 118 or higher.
SEASON FORM
You want to look for a horse that has had at least two runs and one win this term – trends met by eight winners.
Eclipse 2024 trends verdict
A messy renewal from a statistical point of view as none of the horses meet all the trends. Despite falling short in a couple of key areas, CITY OF TROY gets the nod by virtue of his superior rating and Derby success LTO. He will need to prove he does not blow hot and cold like stablemate Auguste Rodin, however. Jayarebe could be a lively outsider.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
Saturday’s Racing Tips
- Matt Chapman’s ITV Racing tips for Saturday
- Rory Delargy’s horse racing tips for Sandown and Haydock
- Mick Fitzgerald’s ITV Racing tips for Saturday
- Ruby Walsh’s horse racing tips for Sandown and Haydock
- Jason Weaver’s ITV Racing tips for Saturday
Read More on the Eclipse
- Gallop over to Paddy Power News for all the latest horse racing tips
- When is the Eclipse 2024? Sandown date, start time, runners and betting
- Eclipse tips and runner-by-runner guide to Sandown 3.35 on Saturday
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