Los Angeles is bidding to become the third horse in four years to win the Irish Derby after finishing third in the Epsom equivalent.
Hurricane Lane (2021) and Westover (2022) bagged the bronze in England before scooting to success on the other side of the Irish Sea, but Aidan O’Brien’s leading contender has to reverse the form with Ambiente Friendly, who took the silver in the Classic earlier this month.
The Derby at Epsom is generally a good guide to the Curragh’s big race and Euphoric – also saddled by Ballydoyle maestro O’Brien – is the only other horse that took part but the Frankel colt was a distant ninth.
Irish Derby odds can be found on the Paddy Power website and Paddy Power app, otherwise key historical trends from the last 10 renewals and a tip based off the big-race stats are below.
Irish Derby trends
COURSE FORM
Auguste Rodin was the first winner of the Irish Derby in four renewals to have previously raced at the Curragh and that is a trend shared by just five successful horses since 2014.
DISTANCE FORM
While nine winners had already tested their mettle over the 1m4f trip, just four of those had experience of victory at the distance.
DRAW
Breaking from a high stall appears to be crucial because every winner was drawn in seven or higher, with stalls eight and nine being the most fruitful having provided three scorers each.
FLAT FORM
At least four runs on the Flat is vital because that is a trend shared by all 10 winners of the Irish Derby.
GROUP FORM
A previous victory in a Group 1-3 race is key because seven winners had already bagged black type. Euphoric, Keeper’s Heart and The Euphrates have all failed to get off the mark in a Group contest.
LAST TIME OUT
You want to look for a horse than ran in the Derby at Epsom as eight winners tackled the English equivalent, with six of those finishing in the top three on that occasion.
Additionally, every winner had their last run within the last 29 days. Grosvenor Square and Matsuri fall foul of this trend.
ODDS
Paddy Power’s betting for the Irish Derby has been on the money as seven winners could be found in the top three in the market, with five of those going off as favourites or joint-favourites.
RATING
If you put a line through 103-rated Latrobe (2018) and 105-rated Sovereign (2019) then Westover (2022) winning off a mark of 109 is the baseline.
Irish Derby 2024 trends verdict
The trends suggest it will be a shootout between AMBIENTE FRIENDLY and Los Angeles, with the Epsom Derby second getting the marginal nod on account of a superior rating and higher draw.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
Read More on the Irish Derby
- Gallop over to Paddy Power News for all the latest horse racing tips
- When is the Irish Derby 2024? Curragh date, start time, runners and betting
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